1. Technical Analysis: Pullback Reaches Key Support, Short-term Volume Changes Need Monitoring

  1. Price Trends and Support Levels
    Recently, BTC price has fluctuated in the range of $104,000 to $110,000, briefly dipping to the $104,500 support level on May 30 before rebounding. Support levels vary from different sources, with some analyses suggesting that $105,000 to $107,000 is a key defense line, while longer-term support may be around $100,000. If prices fall below $104,500, it may further test the $102,500-$103,000 range.

  2. Technical Indicator Signals

    • MACD: Daily level shows a bearish divergence, with DIF and DEA forming a dead cross, indicating enhanced short-term bearish momentum.

    • RSI: Currently at 52 (neutral range), not entering overbought or oversold areas, showing balance between bulls and bears.

    • Bollinger Bands: 4-hour level is narrowing, suggesting potential volatility breakout, need to pay attention to breakout direction.

    • Pattern Analysis: Weekly chart shows bull flag breakout; if it holds above $110,000, mid to long-term target points to $150,000; however, short-term pullback risks exist.

2. Capital Flow: Institutions Continue to Increase Positions, Whale Bull-Bear Speculation Intensifies Volatility

  1. Institutional Capital Inflow
    BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF recently saw a net inflow of $970 million in a single day, increasing its holdings to 598,936 BTC (approximately $5.69 billion), indicating institutional confidence in the long-term trend. At the same time, the inflow of spot ETF funds provides 'structural support' for the market, potentially alleviating selling pressure.

  2. Divergence in Whale Movements

    • Long Position Layout: A certain whale increased long positions near $103,000, with a position value of $393 million and a liquidation price of $95,576.

    • Short Position Hedging: Another whale holds 5,500 BTC short positions on the Hyperliquid platform, with an unrealized profit of $8.3 million, indicating market divergence between bulls and bears.
      This game of speculation may intensify short-term volatility, but in the long run, the decline in exchange Bitcoin reserves to a two-year low reflects reduced market selling pressure and increased potential buying power.

3. Market Sentiment: Panic and Optimism Coexist, Key Events Need Attention

  1. Short-term Emotional Fluctuations
    Recent pullbacks have triggered panic among some investors, with over $1.58 billion in leveraged positions liquidated within 24 hours, 88.3% of which were long positions. The high-leverage environment (with perpetual contract leverage reaching 2.7 times) may amplify volatility risks, especially if prices approach the high-leverage liquidity concentration area around $58,500.

  2. Long-term Confidence Support
    Historical data shows that a 30% pullback is common in Bitcoin bull markets, and large whales increasing positions against the trend is often seen as a market bottom signal. Additionally, expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy and global economic uncertainties may strengthen Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes.

4. Risk Warning: Be Cautious When Bottom Fishing, Manage Positions Well

  1. Policy and Black Swan Risks
    Uncertainty in regulatory policies (such as the U.S. SEC's stance on ETFs), geopolitical conflicts, and other events may trigger sharp price fluctuations. For example, if Bitcoin falls below the key psychological level of $100,000, it may trigger programmatic trading sell-offs.

  2. Leverage and Liquidity Risks
    Current market leverage is relatively high; if prices drop rapidly, it may trigger a chain liquidation, further depressing market sentiment. Investors should avoid excessive leverage, especially near key support levels.

  3. Operational Recommendations

    • Short-term Traders: Can lightly test long positions in the $104,500-$106,000 range, with a stop-loss set below $104,000, targeting the $108,000 resistance level.

    • Long-term Holders: Can stagger positions, controlling the average cost below $105,000, using pullback opportunities to accumulate chips.

    • Risk Hedging: Use options or spot ETFs (like BlackRock IBIT) to hedge volatility risks, avoiding excessive exposure in a single position.

Bitcoin's current pullback is the result of a technical adjustment and market sentiment speculation. In the short term, attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $104,500 support level and volume changes. Institutional capital inflow and on-chain data (like the decline in exchange reserves) support the long-term trend, but the high-leverage environment and policy uncertainties may exacerbate volatility. For bottom-fishing opportunities, it is recommended to combine personal risk tolerance, adopt a staggered entry strategy, and set strict stop-loss levels. In the mid to long term, if it breaks through the resistance level of $110,000, it may initiate a new round of upward cycles, targeting $150,000.


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