Simple Bullish Logic for ETH Ignore Short-term Fluctuations for Long-term Gains
I. Bullish Logic (Simple and Direct)
1. Technical Analysis: ETH holds key support at $2,400 (data as of May 30, 2025), daily MACD golden cross, and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is opening upwards.
2. Fundamental Analysis: After the Cancun upgrade (EIP-4844), Layer 2 transfer costs decreased by 90%, and ecosystem activity increased (DApp transaction volume rose by 35% week-on-week).
3. Capital Analysis: Grayscale ETH Trust (GBTC) premium narrowed from -15% to -8%, indicating signs of institutional buying.
II. Bullish Strategy Execution Plan
🔥 1. Entry Timing
• Aggressive: Enter at current price of $2,450 with a 30% position, add 20% if it breaks $2,600 (60-day moving average).
• Conservative: Wait for a pullback to $2,350 (50-day moving average) to buy a 50% position; abandon bullish outlook if it falls below $2,280 (weekly support).
🔥 2. Holding Period and Targets
• Short-term: Target price of $2,800 (15% increase), hold for 1-2 weeks, look for $3,000 after the breakout.
• Medium-term: Target price of $3,500 (benefits from the Cancun upgrade realized), hold for 1-3 months, combined with ETH2.0 staking annual yield of 4.5% to enhance returns.
🔥 3. Risk Control Rules (Must Execute)
• Stop Loss: Unconditional stop loss if it falls below $2,300 (below all short-term moving averages), limit losses to within 8%.
• Position Management: Total position should not exceed 20% of total assets, no leverage allowed (ETH often fluctuates more than 10% per day).
III. Intra-day Operation Support Tools
1. Key Level Alerts:
◦ Resistance Levels: $2,650 (2024 high), $2,880 (61.8% Fibonacci level)
◦ Support Levels: $2,400 (psychological level), $2,250 (200-day moving average)
2. Sentiment Indicators:
◦ Check MVRV ratio: If >3.5 (current 2.8), be cautious of short-term overbought conditions and consider reducing positions;
◦ Monitor ETH/BTC trading pair: If it breaks 0.065, it indicates ETH is relatively strong, increasing bullish probability.
