$BTC ## 📈 **Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) - May 30, 2025**
### **1. Current Context and Price**
- **Current price**: **$106,308** (variation: **-1.39%** in the last hours).
- **Daily range**: Minimum of **$105,640**, maximum of **$108,888**.
- **Recent trend**: After a bullish rally last week (+10%), Bitcoin faces a technical correction, breaking a bullish trend line in place since May 19.
**2. Key Support and Resistance Levels**
| **Level** | Price ($) | Importance
| **Resistance** | 108,894 | Break necessary for target of $110,360 |
| **Resistance** | 111,983 | Recent historical high (LP) |
| **Support** | 106,000 | Critical zone; break would activate drop to $103,000 |
| **Support** | 107,000 | Confirmation of bearish scenario
### **3. Technical Indicators**
- **MACD**: **Bullish signal**, but with loss of momentum on 30-minute charts.
- **RSI**: **65.78** (neutral), no overbought, but shows buyer weakness.
- **ADX**: **34.63** (strong trend), although the direction is lateral-bearish in the short term.
- **Volume**: Increase in sales during the break of dynamic support, indicating bearish pressure.
### **4. Likely Scenarios for Today**
#### **Bullish Scenario (20% probability)**:
- **Condition**: 30-minute candle close above **$108,894**.
- **Target**: $110,360, with possible extension to $111,983.
- **Strategy**: Entry in *call options* with barrier at $107,000.
#### **Bearish Scenario (60% probability)**:
- **Condition**: 30-minute candle close below **$107,000**.
- **Target**: Drop to **$106,000** (key support), with possible extension to **$103,000**.
- **Strategy**: *Put options* with barrier at $108,894.
#### **Lateral Scenario (20% probability)**:
- **Range**: **$106,000 - $108,800**, technical consolidation before new direction. *5. Relevant External Factors**
- **Macro events**:
- **PCE inflation data (U.S.)**: Publication today; if it exceeds expectations, it could pressure BTC downwards.
- **FED policy**: Expectation of rate cuts in 2025; adverse news would affect risk.
- **Institutional flows**: Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of **+$1,800M** last week, structural support.
- **Geopolitics**: Tension between the West and Eurasia favors gold ($3,360), diverting capital from crypto.
**6. Conclusion and Recommendations**
- **Diagnosis**: **Short-term bearish bias** due to technical break, but support at **$106,000** is key. A loss of this level would accelerate selling.
- **Risk management**:
- Trade with *stop-loss* at **$105,900** for long positions.
- Use *barrier options* to limit exposure in lateral movements.
- **Watch today**:
- **30-minute candle closes** at $107,000 and $108,894.
- **PCE data and volume** in critical areas.
