In a scene worthy of a financial thriller, the public debt of the United States has become the unwanted protagonist keeping global markets on edge. John Waldron, president of Goldman Sachs, has issued a stark warning: the growing federal debt poses a more severe macroeconomic risk than trade tariffs.
The figures are alarming. The Congressional Budget Office projects that federal debt will reach 117% of GDP by 2034, with interest payments potentially consuming up to 30% of federal revenues if bond yields remain high. The recent tax reform by President Trump, known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," promises tax cuts and increases in spending that will add $3.8 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.
This situation has caused bond managers to avoid long-term debt, anticipating greater volatility. Goldman Sachs has raised its default forecasts for junk bonds and leveraged loans, citing the impact of expansive fiscal policies.
In this context, assets like gold and oil have gained appeal as safe havens, with gold recording a 26.6% increase in 2025.
The question that remains is: Can the United States avoid a fiscal crisis that shakes the foundations of the global economy?
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