Experts have been announcing the imminent arrival of the altcoin season for more than two years. Yet, despite hopes and occasional signals, it has still not materialized. But this time, according to the Swiss bank Sygnum, things could finally change. Their latest report suggests that the second quarter of 2025 could mark a decisive turning point for altcoins.
The first quarter of 2025 will be remembered as a dead period for the entire crypto market. Between persistent macroeconomic tensions, investor caution, and weak demand, most projects have seen their prices plummet, some flirting again with their lowest levels of 2023.
The altcoin season does not trigger solely on technical trends or community FOMO. This time, it is the regulatory framework that could well play the role of the main catalyst. According to the latest report from the Swiss crypto bank Sygnum, the legal environment has radically improved since the beginning of the year, particularly in the United States where several bills on stablecoins and tokenization have passed key milestones.
This regulatory turning point is essential: it finally offers a base of trust to institutions, while opening the door to structured products on altcoins such as ETFs, options, or futures, which should arrive in mass by the end of 2025.
But that's not all. The rise of tokenization-oriented blockchains, such as Ondo Chain or Plume Network, marks a clear shift towards more serious adoption of altcoins. These next-generation Layer 1s are not just looking to make noise, but to incorporate real flows from traditional financial markets.
With Larry Fink's (BlackRock) open support for a rapid tokenization of stocks and bonds, altcoins find themselves at the heart of a narrative much more macro than before. The altcoin season could therefore rely this time on a structural demand, much stronger than that seen during previous bull markets.
Finally, the altcoin ecosystem is becoming ultra-competitive, but in a good way. Thus, we are no longer talking only about memecoins or passing hype, but about a real battle over economic value. Projects like Toncoin or Berachain are experimenting with new revenue sharing models, governance, or incentives for developers.
Moreover, this dynamic arrives just as Bitcoin reaches a dominance peak not seen in four years. The result? A market imbalance ready to correct. And if this correction finally marks the true starting signal for the altcoin season?
Technical analysis is clearly not yet bullish on the altcoin season. The CoinMarketCap indicator shows a timid 16/100, barely above its low of 13 in December 2024. On the Blockchain Center side, the same sentiment: the Altcoin Season Index peaks at 18. Bitget? The same tune, with a score of 17. In short, we are still in the depths of the altcoin winter, far from the euphoria of a true altcoin season.
The most closely watched proxies confirm this trend. Total 2 (capital excluding BTC) is down 27% since the beginning of the year, and down 7.53% over the last month. The only respite: a small weekly rebound of +3.63%, to be taken with caution. Total 3 (excluding BTC & ETH) is hardly doing better: -4.91% in 30 days, despite a +3.06% in 7 days.
Not enough to shout about the altcoin season, but perhaps the beginnings of a turnaround.
And what about Bitcoin's dominance in all this? It is booming: 63.83%, up 3.88% in a month, which literally crushes the breathing room for altcoins. As long as 'King BTC' commands so much attention and flow, the altcoin season will remain in standby mode. For it to really take off, there will need to be a sudden change in market psychology... and that could happen faster than one might think.
