Analysis of the 5 billion USD repayment from FTX on 30/5/2025: Impact and possible scenarios

On tomorrow (30/5/2025), FTX – the exchange that famously went bankrupt at the end of 2022 – will begin distributing more than 5 billion USD to creditors. This event could cause significant volatility in the crypto market in the short term, especially with major exchanges like Binance.

✅ Likelihood of occurrence: Very high

Mainstream sources such as CoinDesk, Coin68, and FTX's bankruptcy filings confirm that this repayment has been meticulously prepared, with KYC requirements, tax form submissions, and confirmation of payment methods. Furthermore, intermediary platforms like BitGo and Kraken are ready to execute transactions from 30/5.

→ There is a 99% chance that the funds will be repaid on time, with a large portion of the 5 billion USD expected to be disbursed within the next 1–3 days.

📉 Potential impact on the crypto market

1. Selling pressure from recipients of the funds

* Profit-taking sentiment: Many recipients (after nearly 2 years of waiting) may want to withdraw from the market, creating significant selling pressure in the short term.

* A very large amount: With 5 billion USD being released, if only 30–40% of this amount is sold, the market will have to absorb about 1.5–2 billion USD, enough to cause strong fluctuations.

2. Impact on BTC and Altcoins

* BTC and top coins may be sold off first due to high liquidity.

* Some Altcoins that were listed on FTX (SOL, SRM, FTT...) may also be affected as funds and holders from FTX may want to exit their positions.

3. Impact on Binance

* Binance is currently the exchange with the largest liquidity. In the context of the flow of FTX funds starting to return, it is possible:

* A portion of the funds will be transferred to Binance if the recipients wish to continue investing.

* Conversely, withdrawal or conversion pressure to stablecoins may also affect the deposit/withdrawal volume.

* Binance may increase control over large transactions or conversion fees in the coming days to reduce internal volatility.

📊 Possible scenarios

The 5 billion USD repayment from FTX is an important event and will certainly impact the market. While this is good news about the repayment, in the short term, the crypto market may experience fluctuations due to selling pressure.

→ Investors should:

* Closely monitor the market's response on 30/5 – 2/6.

* Maintain a steady mindset, avoid FOMO or panic.

* Consider carefully when entering new orders in the coming days, especially on low liquidity altcoin pairs.