The US unemployment data released tonight signals a marginal weakening of the labor market, which needs to be interpreted comprehensively from three dimensions: data performance, driving factors, and market impact:

1. Data Performance

• Initial jobless claims: 240,000 (expected 230,000, previous value revised to 226,000), marking a third consecutive week of increases, reaching a 14-week high

• Continuing jobless claims: 1.919 million (expected 1.894 million), covering the May non-farm payroll survey week, potentially pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.3%

• Structural differentiation: Claims from high-income households surged year-on-year (February to April), while claims from middle and low-income groups accelerated in April, indicating that the wave of unemployment is spreading from high-paying sectors like technology and finance to broader fields

2. Driving Factors

• Policy uncertainty: Trump’s trade policies have led to layoffs in companies (with the semiconductor and manufacturing sectors being the hardest hit), and on Wednesday, the trade court ruled that his tariffs were overreaching, further exacerbating market wait-and-see sentiment

• Federal Reserve's stance: The minutes from the May meeting indicate that officials are concerned about the difficult balancing act of "both inflation and unemployment rising," suggesting a potential extension of the rate pause period

• Seasonal factors: Economists point out that June data may break through the range of 205,000 to 243,000, but emphasize the need to exclude seasonal adjustment interference, which may not reflect the true employment trend

3. Market Impact

• Short-term volatility: Following the data release, the dollar index briefly dropped by 0.2%, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points, and US stock futures rose slightly

• Medium-term outlook: If the non-farm payroll data (to be released on June 6) confirms an unemployment rate exceeding 4.2%, it may strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in July, but caution is warranted regarding the dual impact of trade policies and debt ceiling negotiations

• China-related: A cooling US job market may drag down external demand, creating temporary appreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate (historical data shows a correlation of -0.68 between the dollar index and RMB exchange rate)

Conclusion: This unemployment data confirms the labor market's transition from "overheated" to "soft landing," but policy uncertainty and structural unemployment risks remain. It is advised to pay attention to the non-farm payroll report on June 6 and the Federal Reserve's rate decision on June 19, while in the short term, one may watch the key support level of the dollar index at 95.5 and the RMB to USD exchange rate may test the range of 6.85 to 6.88.