BTC's Change Trend in the Last Seven Days
Core Forecast Logic Halving Cycle: Bitcoin halving in April 2024, history shows that bull market peaks often occur 12-18 months after halving, which is the second to third quarter of 2025.
Institutional Cycle: Bitcoin ETF fund flows fluctuate significantly at the end of the quarter. On-chain signals: whale holdings, net outflows from exchanges, and other indicators can reflect price trends.
Daily Scenario Simulation
Date Prediction Range Key Events Driving Bull-Bear Game Focus
May 22 98,000−102,000 MicroStrategy announces increased holdings Will ETF fund inflows turn negative?
May 23 95,500−100,000 Federal Reserve meeting minutes hawkish signals Can the dollar index break 106?
May 24 93,000−97,000 US April core PCE data exceeds expectations Will interest rate cut expectations be postponed to December?
May 25 96,000−101,000 BlackRock ETF single-day capital inflow of 540 million Will Asian institutions engage in bottom-fishing?
May 26 103,000−107,000 El Salvador announces increased BTC holdings Can it accumulate momentum to break previous highs?
May 27 105,000−110,000 Grayscale GBTC net outflows turn positive Will derivative funding rates surge?
May 28 101,000−106,000 CME Futures massive settlement Will long leverage be cleared in bulk?
May 29 108,000−112,000 Monthly close + maximum pain point for options $100,000 Is there a short squeeze situation?
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