Altcoin season is trending across Twitter—but is it actually here? While Bitcoin hits new highs of $111,970, most altcoins remain stagnant. Analyst VirtualBacon cautions that the market may not be as strong as it appears, suggesting the altcoin hype could be misleading. Although Bitcoin dominance is slipping and Twitter is buzzing with expectations of an altcoin pump, and retail coins are still stuck. All these signs raise questions: Is the real altseason yet to begin?
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How Does Altcoin Season Index Work? 👀
The Altcoin Season index checks the performance of the top 50 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over 90 days. It measures the percentage of top altcoins outperforming Bitcoin. For example, if 75% or more of Altcoin’s price performs better than Bitcoin, then it is called Altseason. Excluded from the Top 50 are Stablecoins (Tether, DAI, etc.) and asset-backed tokens (WBTC, stETH, cLINK, etc)
🤔 When Will the Next Altseason Start?
In the past 90 days, only 24 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap have outperformed Bitcoin. Currently, we are in Bitcoin Season, but last month, the index ranking increased from 14 to 25, which highlights the upcoming Altseason.
Bitcoin Dominance 🔥
A decline in Bitcoin dominance below 50% shows a surge in altcoin activity, which marks the start of Altseason. Currently, Bitcoin dominance is around 64%, and if it declines further, then it could be an altcoin rally.
Since July 2022, the Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) has increased within an ascending parallel channel.
Bitcoin primarily traded in the top part of the channel, despite some falls within this pattern.
The three weeks in December 2024 that ended with a robust bounce (green icon) and new highs were the primary exception.
Even though the BTCD hit a high of 65.38% in May, it confirmed the 64% region as resistance by forming a bearish engulfing candlestick.
A bearish divergence in the RSI is one of the bearish indicators shown by technical indicators.
The BTCD displays some of the most bearish indicators since the rally began, even though it hasn't yet dropped in the lower part of the channel.
The shorter-term BTC dominance chart aligns with this reading, since its shows a rejection at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance of 64%.
The 0.618 Fibonacci level commonly acts as the top if the rally is corrective.
Waves A and C would have the same length if the downward movement's minimal aim was 60.81%.
However, if the downturn is a five-wave downward swing, the Bitcoin Dominance may drop significantly. A breakdown from the long-term channel could then occur.
Altcoins Show Strength 📈
Except for the top ten altcoins, the Altcoins Dominance Chart shows the market capitalizations of medium-cap altcoins against Bitcoin to demonstrate their relative strength.
The decline is over since altcoins broke out from a descending wedge, an ending diagonal. They're attempting to confirm the wedge as support right now (green icon). The trend reversal will be confirmed by a breakout over 8.75%, which will move cryptocurrencies to the next resistance level between 10 and 10.60%.
Final Thoughts 👇💎
Bitcoin dominance does not last forever. When BTC starts moving sideways and dominance begins to decline consistently, it can be an early signal that altseason will begin.
An altcoin dominance breakthrough is perfectly aligned with the BTCD drop. The minimum target is a BTCD decline to 60%, while it is unknown how long the increase will last.
Historical altseason trends show distinct timeframes for major cycles. In 2017, the altseason spanned from July to January, while in 2021, it ran from January to May. Based on these patterns, CoinpediaMarkets experts anticipate a potential altseason window from June to December 2025.
