QUICK VALUATION METHOD FOR A PROJECT
1. Sentiment – What does market sentiment say?
Crypto Twitter (CT) VIETNAM often reacts slowly. If a project hasn't been mentioned much, it may still be too early.
On the contrary, when everyone talks about it and praises it, that is when you should be cautious.
👉 The more controversial the project, the more worth researching it is. What you need is attention – it doesn't necessarily have to be consensus.
2. Opportunity Cost – Is it worth it compared to BTC?
Investing in an altcoin means you have chosen to ignore BTC. If the project has never surpassed BTC before, what reason is there for it to do so in the future?
👉 You can use indicators like Sharpe Ratio to compare risk and reward – helping you know whether it's worth the trade-off.
3. Distribution – Who is holding the token?
An overly even token distribution can be… a problem. Because if everyone holds a little, there won't be anyone large enough to push the project to pump strongly, which is why people often say that fish haven't gathered enough, so they haven't pumped. Many worry that having a lot of fish is not good, but the truth is the opposite. What matters is who holds the token, not how much they hold.
👉 Ideally, there should be a few 'good whales' – large enough to create momentum but not controlling the project. Balance is important.
4. The Angle – What problem does the project solve?
A good project is one that you can explain in 10 seconds. The clearer the narrative, the easier it is to spread.
For example:
-Hyperliquid = the strongest derivative DEX.
-Kaito = AI search tool for crypto
👉 Bonus points if there are inside jokes or memes – a sign of an active community.
5. Cults – Is there a real community?
The project may be good, but if no one talks about it, it is very hard to pump strongly. Strong projects always have a few leaders who guide the community and spread its value outside.
For example, during the hot meme trend of BNB:
👉 CZ, YiHe strongly shilling → pump wave. When they stop shilling → trend fades.
No one tells the story → no one buys. That's it.
6. Age – What stage is the project in?
New projects often fluctuate more because there are not many holders 'holding bags'.
Meanwhile, an old project – even if good – is more likely to be dumped when there is a pump.
👉 The 'good' phase is usually 2–6 months after launch. The first wave has ended, there is a correction → this is when you should start paying attention.
✅ In summary:
To understand a project, don't just look at TVL or charts or shilling from ST. Look into the following issues:
Does the project have a clear narrative?
Who is holding the token?
Is the community strong? Are they talking about it?
If I don't buy this altcoin, is holding BTC more profitable?
Valuable information lies in what others haven't noticed – not in the whitepaper or what you hear from others.
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