Can the dollar really continue indefinitely? Can a bill with 'Genius' in its title really solve the $36 trillion U.S. Treasury crisis with blockchain stablecoins? Or is this just the last resort before the U.S. Treasury game completely spirals out of control? Have you ever wondered, if the future of the dollar truly relies on 'on-chain IOUs', then what is the BTC in our hands, a ticket or a lifeboat?


Recently, a bill that shocked the global financial market has emerged—the U.S. Senate passed a procedural motion named (Guiding and Establishing a National Innovation Bill for Dollar Stablecoins) with a high vote of 66:32. It also has a loud and bold abbreviation: #GENIUS稳定 or the 'Genius Bill'.


It sounds like an epoch-making financial innovation, but in fact, it resembles a financial drama eager to unfold. This bill not only marks the entry of dollar stablecoins into the federal legislative process but may also reshape the dollar system for decades to come and even ignite a global 'on-chain dollar revolution'.


So, where exactly is its 'genius'?


A brief history of the evolution of the dollar: from gold, to debt, and then to on-chain.


Let's quickly review the three major transformations of the dollar:


  • Dollar 1.0: The gold peg era, relying on the Bretton Woods system to maintain credit.


  • Dollar 2.0: Pegged to oil and U.S. Treasuries, transitioning to a debt-driven credit economy.


  • Dollar 3.0?: Dollar stablecoins make their debut, re-binding U.S. Treasuries through on-chain operations to 'new dollars'—on-chain dollars.



In 1971, Nixon tore up the gold standard agreement, and the dollar completely decoupled from gold. After that, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury played a 'you issue debt, I print money' combination, turning the dollar into an 'infinite loop tool of debt and currency'. However, this mechanism has two fundamental flaws:


  1. Trust overdraft: The dollar relies on debt rather than assets, with $36 trillion in U.S. Treasuries hanging like a sword over our heads.


  2. Inflation deadlock: If unlimited expansion of debt does not have new credit bearers, it will eventually collapse.



Dollar stablecoins, is it the new round of 'U.S. Treasury Alchemy'?


The 'genius' of the GENIUS Bill lies in——it constructs a brand new currency circulation model. It seems like financial innovation, but in fact, it treats U.S. Treasuries as 'coinage gold', with stablecoin issuers replacing the Federal Reserve to mint 'new dollars'.



The mechanism of stablecoins is: users deposit dollars, issuers issue an equivalent amount of stablecoins, and then these funds are used to buy back U.S. Treasuries. The result? Not only is the liquidity of the dollar reinjected, but it also bypasses the Federal Reserve's dominant control over currency.



The entire process constitutes an on-chain spiral leverage model:


  1. Increase the issuance of stablecoins;


  2. Buy U.S. Treasuries;


  3. Funds flow into RWAs (real-world assets);


  4. Funds flow back into the stablecoin system;


  5. Buy U.S. Treasuries again.



Did you understand? This cycle can theoretically operate indefinitely, like installing a financial accelerator on U.S. Treasuries. As long as the global market can absorb these 'on-chain dollars', the scale of U.S. Treasuries can be leveraged and magnified dozens of times, even hundreds of times.


This is the 'Dollar Hegemony 3.0' plan we see before us.


Stablecoins + RWA = Super U.S. Treasury engine?


Currently, the total market value of global dollar stablecoins is less than $200 billion, which is less than 1/100th of U.S. Treasuries. To become a new generation of issuance tool for the dollar, it must expand geometrically.


According to current projections, even if relying solely on 5x leverage for expansion, if dollar stablecoins can stabilize and support the cycle of U.S. Treasuries, it is expected to expand the scale of U.S. Treasuries from $36 trillion to $180 trillion. At that point, on-chain dollars become the main character, while the Federal Reserve becomes a peripheral role.


So who will foot the bill? The answer is obvious: all holders of on-chain assets globally.


In this on-chain U.S. Treasury financial leap, the role of BTC also becomes clear—it acts like a 'black hole', constantly absorbing the liquidity of stablecoins and is the 'gravitational core' of the entire on-chain financial system.


Can the price space of BTC ride the wind?


If the current market value of BTC is $2 trillion and dollar stablecoins are $200 billion, calculated at a 10:1 ratio, if stablecoins expand to $180 trillion, the corresponding BTC market value could expand to $180 trillion!


Of course, this is just an ideal model; in reality, it will also be diverted by RWA and other factors. But even if it only retains a 1/100 absorption ratio, the market value of BTC will impact the $200 trillion level in the future, with one BTC possibly reaching ten million dollars or even higher.


But don't celebrate too early—this entire foundation is that the credit of the dollar must support this leap.


Once stablecoins are over-issued and global users lose confidence, on-chain dollars may instantly 'power down', triggering another dollar crisis—only this time, it will be a 'Lehman moment' from the blockchain dimension.



A brutal question: Is Dollar 3.0 redemption? Or mere prolongation?


This is precisely the biggest controversy of the 'Genius Bill': is it the rebirth of the dollar system, or the last struggle? If dollar stablecoins can truly deconstruct the Federal Reserve's monetary sovereignty and support a global financial system in a 'decentralized' manner, then the dollar has transitioned from 'gold standard' to 'chain standard'.


But the question is, will the whole world be willing to accept a U.S. Treasury financial empire carried by stablecoins? Are global users willing to use their BTC and RWA assets to absorb the U.S. fiscal bubble?


You might think this is just financial technology, but in reality, it is financial geopolitics!



How to layout? Use AI to help you uncover the rules of the 'On-chain Dollar Game'.


As investors, we cannot dictate the direction of the transformation of dollar hegemony, but what we can do is to timely identify the capital logic behind on-chain trends.


In this regard, Mlion.ai has already begun to provide in-depth research reports and data tracking on the trends of dollar stablecoins. Through its on-chain address analysis and AI news interpretation, you can monitor in real-time the dynamics of stablecoin issuance, flow, and RWA assets, better understanding the real flow of on-chain capital. The price prediction and AI strategy illustration features can also help you assess the true position of core assets like BTC in this on-chain financial transformation.


If you still don't know how to study the 'On-chain U.S. Treasury Game', then you should start using Mlion.ai.



Conclusion:


We are in an era where the U.S. Treasury game may be rewritten. The survival issue of dollar hegemony has transitioned from the Bretton Woods system to petrodollars, and now to the stage of 'stablecoin alchemy'. What we ordinary investors can do is to understand the rules of the game, avoid being the bag holder, and not miss the next main channel of value reassessment.


Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice! The cryptocurrency market has risks, and entering it requires caution!