The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that the implied benchmark policy path based on option prices (representing market consensus expectations) has slightly shifted downward during this period, suggesting a possible rate cut of 1 to 2 times (25 basis points each) by the end of the year—only slightly more than the expectations at the March FOMC meeting. The implied probability distribution of year-end interest rates from options has shifted to the left, and downside risks have significantly increased. As the market believes that the downside risk of the policy rate is intensifying, the implied expected policy path in the futures market has been adjusted downward more significantly, indicating a potential rate cut of about 3 times before the end of the year. However, the median changes in the benchmark rate path shown in market expectation surveys have not varied much, still suggesting 2 to 3 rate cuts this year. Nonetheless, the survey indicates that the divergence among respondents regarding the most likely policy path is widening.