Hours before its release... What does the US Federal Reserve's minutes conceal?
The minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting are expected to show policymakers' adherence to a "wait and see" approach, with reduced chances of altering the key interest rate in the near term. This document serves as an accurate indicator of the economic uncertainty imposed by global trade tensions and the tariff decisions made by President Donald Trump.
The US Federal Reserve's minutes are scheduled to be published today, Wednesday, at 2 PM Eastern Time.
The US Federal Reserve continues to face a state of deep uncertainty, as markets lack clear signals regarding upcoming trade policies. The minutes may reveal that officials discussed the implications of fluctuating import tariffs, without reaching a stable ground to assess their economic impact.
Future expectations are divided between two conflicting scenarios: the first favors rising inflation due to the entrenchment of tariffs, while the second anticipates rising unemployment as a result of uncertainty and increasing costs, potentially leading to a troubling economic mix.
Current market estimates suggest that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the June and July meetings, with expectations of a cut in September and December.