The narrative space of Bitcoin has opened a new chapter. Looking back at its previous bull markets, almost all have been accompanied by shifts in macro structure or institutional narratives:
2013 Bull Market: The Cyprus financial crisis highlighted the appeal of Bitcoin as a 'de-banked' asset.
2017 Bull Market: The ICO boom and innovations in smart contracts drove capital influx.
2021 Bull Market: The Federal Reserve's ultra-loose monetary policy combined with the NFT and DeFi booms.
2024-2025 Bull Market: A trust crisis surrounding 'Bitcoin's credibility against U.S. Treasuries.'
The recent rise in Bitcoin is not merely due to technical breakthroughs, but stems from a deep-seated distrust of the existing financial system: persistent shrinking demand for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, expanding fiscal deficits, manipulated short-term interest rates, long-term interest rates facing involuntary selling pressure, and a general pessimistic sentiment towards traditional institutional solutions.
If the stablecoin legislation promotes further expansion of stablecoin scale, it may instead exacerbate market structural concerns about the 'potential collapse of the dollar system.' Such anxiety, when traditional capital markets lack effective release channels, will naturally lead funds towards assets like Bitcoin and gold.
For the current market, Trump is still a barometer. His every move determines the market's short-term rise and fall. The Trump Media Group has proposed a $3 billion plan to hoard Bitcoin, and then publicly supported the Bitcoin bill, demanding that the U.S. government purchase 1 million Bitcoins within five years, with funds coming from the Federal Reserve and Treasury's existing reserves.
Bitcoin has reached $110,000, but it hasn't hit a new high, while Ethereum only touched $2,700 briefly.
At the recent Bitcoin conference, speeches were given by Donald Trump Jr., crypto czar David Sacks, Senator Lummis, and the head of BlackRock's digital assets during last night's meeting. The main message was that Bitcoin is the future financial system and a reserve asset. Currently, the attendees are thinking about how to use more money and hoard more Bitcoin, which is a potential positive for the crypto circle!
This is just the first day of the Bitcoin conference, and tomorrow Vice President Vance, Donald Trump Jr.'s second son Eric, MicroStrategy CEO Saylor, and Silk Road founder Ross will also speak. We hope to bring good news!
From a technical perspective, Ethereum's ETH/BTC trading pair has recently shown an upward trend. Ethereum's RSI is currently in a neutral to strong state, indicating that the market holds an optimistic view on its future trends. Additionally, in the past 24 hours, the liquidation amount for Ethereum has far surpassed Bitcoin, reflecting market activity, and the largest resistance to the rise has been the temporary hindrance of contract liquidations!
Secondly, the SEC's meeting on June 1 regarding Grayscale's Ethereum ETF staking is worth paying attention to, as it is a new milestone.
I think this meeting has a high probability of passing, as Hong Kong and Europe have already taken the lead, and Trump wants to create a crypto capital, plus the conditions in Prague have also allowed for it. Many may think that just upgrading doesn’t matter. The fact is that you shouldn't only look at the upgrade; you need to consider long-term potential, including that even if the Ethereum ETF staking passes this time, it won't necessarily reflect immediately in price.
You must understand: value may not immediately reflect in price, but the price will eventually revert to the value it should have.
That's all for today, I'm July, and you can follow the daily article updates!
The lone traveler moves swiftly, while the group traveler goes far! Everyone is welcome to discuss and exchange market insights together!
