Solana (SOL)'s recent trend is a bit "tangled". It is neither a unilateral surge nor a sharp drop, but is in a delicate stage of long-short game.
1. Technical aspect: In the short term, it seems to be "going down the mountain", but there is support at the foot of the mountain
Daily chart: When the price stops rising, it starts to fall
When the price reached a high point a few days ago (May 27), many people took the opportunity to sell their coins (long upper shadow), causing the price to be driven down. Yesterday (28th), it closed with a negative line. It is clear that the bears (those who are bearish) have the upper hand in the short term.
The short-term moving average (EMA7, 30) starts to move downward, but the long-term moving average (EMA120) is still moving upward, indicating that the long-term trend may still be upward, but there is a bit of "braking" in the short term, just like stepping on the foot brake when driving, but not stepping on it hard.
Hourly chart: It is about to fall to the "safety cushion", and may rebound
There has been a continuous decline in recent hours, and the price is approaching 174 US dollars, which is the place where it fell and rose before (previous low support). It is like when you fall down the mountain and there is a stone blocking you at the foot of the mountain, and you may rebound.
Technical indicators show:
RSI is about to reach the oversold zone (below 40 is called oversold, which means it is oversold), and it may bounce back like a spring;
But MACD is still moving downward, which means that the bears still have some strength, just not as strong as before.
2. Ecosystem and market: Some people are optimistic about the long term, but the short term depends on emotions and funds
The ecology is causing trouble, but it is difficult to save it in the short term
Solana has been quite active in the RWA (real asset on-chain) field recently. For example, Centrifuge issued $400 million in U.S. Treasury assets, indicating that it wants to get rid of the label of "pure speculation" and move towards practicality. However, these benefits are long-term and have limited impact on prices in the short term.
There are also bad things, such as the compensation vote of Cetus Protocol, which shows that there is a conflict between the project owner and users, which may affect market confidence.
Prices follow the market, and whale movements are critical
The price of SOL is greatly affected by Bitcoin and Ethereum. If the market falls, it is likely to fall as well, and vice versa.
Recently, 1 million SOL were transferred out of Binance (whales moved). They might be trying to stir up trouble (such as pumping or dumping the market). It is difficult for retail investors to guess their thoughts and they can only be "shocked and startled".
The decrease in the SOL stock in the exchange indicates that some people have transferred their coins to their own wallets. This may be because they are optimistic about the long-term prospects, or they may be afraid of problems with the exchange. In short, market sentiment is a bit cautious.
3. What should ordinary people do? Remember "look at the support, follow the market, don't be greedy"
Want to buy the bottom in the short term: wait until the foot of the mountain is stable before taking action
The support level is around $174. Those who are more aggressive can try to buy with a light position at $172.5 (to bet on a rebound). Those who are more conservative can wait until it falls to $170.5 (lower support) before buying. However, if it falls below $169, you must stop loss (to prevent further plunge).
Don’t set the rebound target too high. $177.5 and $179.5 are both pressure levels (places where the price couldn’t rise before). You can sell when they reach them. Don’t expect the price to rise to the sky all at once.
Long-term bullish: Buy in batches, don’t go all in
If you think the Solana ecosystem can succeed in the future, the current drop is actually an opportunity, but don’t go all in at once. Buy in batches (for example, buy a little when it drops by 5%) to spread the risk.
Don’t panic about short-term fluctuations. As long as the EMA120 moving average is still moving upward, the long-term trend is not bad, just like the trunk of a tree is still growing, and the shaking of branches and leaves will not affect the overall situation.
Risk reminder: Don’t touch leverage and stay away from short-term news
The market sentiment is unstable now, and leverage (borrowing money to trade cryptocurrencies) can easily lead to liquidation, and return to the pre-liberation era overnight;
Don’t believe in those “inside information” and “short-term rises”. Many of them are released by market makers to fish for stocks. It is more realistic to focus on trading volume and moving average.
Summary: It’s like “chicken ribs” in the short term, but “dry goods” in the long term
Solana’s current state is like a dish. It tastes bland in the short term (small volatility, unclear direction), but may have something interesting in the long term (RWA landing, ecological development).
If you are a short-term player: keep an eye on the $174 support and the market trend, enter and exit quickly, and run when you make some money;
If you are a long-term player: take advantage of the pullback to arrange in batches, ignore short-term fluctuations, and focus on whether there are new projects and funds coming in later.
In short, don’t expect it to skyrocket immediately, but don’t give up easily either. After all, the ecosystem is still developing and it just takes time to verify.
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