The US-China tariff ceasefire creates macroeconomic stability that historically benefits risk assets like Ethereum, as reduced trade tensions encourage capital flows into growth sectors including cryptocurrency.
Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade revolutionizes the network through increased staking limits to 2048 ETH, doubled Layer 2 blob capacity, and smart wallet functionality via account abstraction improvements.
Federal Reserve policy uncertainty around inflation and potential rate cuts could boost crypto appeal, while Ethereum sentiment indicators show rapid bullish reversals despite underlying caution about sustained momentum.
Discover how the US-China tariff ceasefire and Ethereum’s groundbreaking Pectra upgrade are positioning ETH for a potential surge to $3,000. Analyze macro trends, Fed policy impacts, and key ecosystem tokens to watch.
MACRO DYNAMICS: GLOBAL POLICIES AFFECT THE MARKET, CRYPTO MARKET SENTIMENT IS HIGH, WILL ETHEREUM BENEFIT?
China-US trade negotiations have made a major breakthrough, and the protracted tariff war has come to a temporary end. Global markets are reacting with new confidence as the two countries agreed to reduce retaliatory tariffs and suspend further escalation over the next 90 days. This development is particularly bullish for risk assets, and Ethereum is well-positioned.
As geopolitical uncertainty eases, investors are more likely to shift capital toward growth sectors, including cryptocurrencies. As the base layer for DeFi, NFTs, and tokenized infrastructure, Ethereum typically sees increased inflows during periods of macroeconomic stability.
Additionally, easing trade restrictions could reduce costs in the global supply chain, positively impacting Ethereum infrastructure and scaling technology that relies on hardware and international logistics. As the broader market regains momentum, Ethereum could experience narrative and capital-driven tailwinds, making it one of the key assets to watch in the coming months.
The US-China Tariff Ceasefire Stabilizes the Global Market, and Ethereum Will Benefit
According to a BBC report, Trump’s tariff war with China has come to a truce after one round. Trump has taken another step back. This will be a ceasefire on the main front of the global trade war, and the global market will recover again. The United States and China have made far more progress than expected in negotiations in Switzerland, with tariffs that were once as high as 1 now being reduced to a moderately high level for at least the next three months.
The offensive and defensive process of both sides was relatively complicated, but the conclusion was that the retaliatory tariff escalation had been canceled and the so-called “reciprocal” 34% tariff had been temporarily reduced to 10% for 90 days. The current tariff rates are: the United States maintains a 30% tariff on Chinese goods (including the 20% tariff originally levied to combat illegal trade in fentanyl); China imposes a 10% tariff on U.S. goods and will cancel other non-tariff countermeasures, such as restricting the export of key minerals to the United States.
UNDER INFLATION, EMPLOYMENT AND MONETARY POLICY: WHAT SHOULD ETHEREUM INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION TO?
Based on a speech by Philip Jefferson, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on May 14, 2025: Progress on the Dual Mandate, Maximum Employment, and Price Stability, and current views on monetary policy.
1. Economic Activity: Surge in Imports and Slower Growth
In Q1 2025, the U.S. real GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3%. Jefferson pointed out that this was primarily driven by a surge in imports, which were not fully reflected in inventory or spending data, potentially overstating the extent of the economic slowdown. In contrast, private domestic final purchases grew by 3%, indicating that the underlying economic fundamentals remain resilient.
(Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
2. Inflation Risk: Tariff Hikes Introduce Uncertainty
Recent inflation data shows continued progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. However, Jefferson warned that if newly announced tariffs persist, they could interrupt the disinflation process and lead to a temporary rise in inflation. He emphasized that the future path of inflation will depend on how trade policies are implemented, how they pass through to consumer prices, how supply chains respond, and how the broader economy performs.
3. Monetary Policy: Holding Rates Steady While Monitoring Developments
Jefferson supported the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to maintain the federal funds rate in the 4.25% to 4.5% range, believing the current stance allows flexibility to respond to future developments. He stated that he will closely monitor signs of economic weakness and assess the impact of tariff increases on inflation to determine the appropriate future policy path.
(Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Although the job market remains sound and does not fluctuate in the range of 4.0%-4.2%, it means that the US labor market is still healthy, and no large-scale censorship has occurred yet. The solid reading is consistent with steady wage growth and falling employment, and suggests inflationary pressures may have shifted away from the labor market.
(Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
At the beginning of 2022, the ratio was close to 2.0, meaning that on average each unemployed person had two job openings to choose from, and the labor market was extremely tight; It has been declining significantly since 2023, and has dropped to about 1.0 by March 2025; It shows that there is currently only one job vacancy for each unemployed person, and companies’ willingness to recruit has clearly weakened compared to the peak in 2022.
(Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Commodity prices have fallen sharply and even shown negative growth (falling prices). Service prices (especially housing) remain high and are currently the main source of pressure on core inflation.
ETHEREUM AND THE CRYPTO MARKET
As of now, the price of Ethereum (ETH) is around $2,588.79, with an intraday range of $2,526.88 to $2,631.38. In the current context of increased macroeconomic uncertainty, the cryptoasset market may face the following impacts:
1. Rising inflation expectations: If tariffs lead to higher inflation, it could prompt investors to seek assets that protect against inflation, and cryptocurrencies could benefit.
2. Monetary policy shift: If economic data shows a slowdown, the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates, which may increase the appeal of crypto assets.
3. Market sentiment fluctuations: Policy uncertainty may increase market volatility, and investors need to carefully assess risks.
Ethereum Sentiment Analysis
According to the latest data from the Blave platform, Ethereum experienced a significant price breakthrough in early May, and at the same time, there was a sharp reversal in market sentiment. Starting from May 7, the sentiment indicator changed from a long period of negative red zone to a short period of positive green zone, which was highly consistent with the rapid rise in prices.
(Source: Blave Data Platform)
This shows that sentiment has turned bullish, with funds pouring in quickly in the short term, driving ETH prices higher. However, since May 10, sentiment has turned negative again, even though prices have remained relatively stable, which may reflect investors’ caution about the risk of a short- to medium-term correction or increased profit-taking.
In summary, although this wave of Ethereum’s rise was driven by market sentiment, the rapid weakening of sentiment indicators showed that the rise still lacked sustained fundamental support.
ETHEREUM PECTRA IS A BRAND NEW UPGRADE, AND ETHEREUM IS REBORN
The “Pectra Upgrade” is an important network upgrade completed by Ethereum on May 7, 2025, which aims to improve network performance, reduce costs and improve user experience. This upgrade covers three core areas: Staking mechanism optimization, Layer 2 (L2) expansion, and account abstraction.
Ethereum Staking Mechanism Optimization: Staking Limit Increased to 2048 ETH
Through EIP-7251, Ethereum increased the staking limit for a single validator from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH. This will help:
Improve the efficiency of funds in and out, especially reduce the waiting time for deposits and withdrawals during network peak hours. In addition, the implementation of EIP-6110 and EIP-7002 provides higher decentralization and automation support for liquidity staking protocols (LST) such as Lido and EtherFi.
Read More： Ethereum Soars: Pectra Upgrade and Global Trends Push ETH Toward $3,000?
Ethereum L2 Expansion: Blob Capacity Doubled, Costs Plummeted
The introduction of EIP-7742 and EIP-7691 doubles the Blob capacity of each block and supports dynamic adjustment. This change directly reduces the data storage cost of L2, further reducing transaction fees, thereby promoting the development of the L2 ecosystem.
Ethereum EIP-7702 Revolution: The Era of Smart Wallets Is Coming
The implementation of EIP-7702 has opened a new chapter for Ethereum account abstraction, significantly improving the flexibility and user experience of wallets: supporting batch transactions and making operations more efficientAllows the use of any token (such as USDT) to pay for Gas fees, eliminating complicated mechanisms and enhancing account security and ease of use.
KEY ETHEREUM ECOSYSTEM SECTORS & TOKENS TO WATCH
Staking & Liquid Staking Tokens (LSTs)
LDO (Lido): The leading liquid staking protocol by market share
ETHFI (EtherFi): Decentralized, non-custodial, and innovative LST platform
SWISE (StakeWise): Focused on modular and enterprise-grade staking solutions
Layer 2 Scaling & Blob Infrastructure (Rollups & Data Availability)
ARB (Arbitrum): The most active Optimistic Rollup ecosystem
OP (Optimism): Core to the Optimism Collective and Superchain vision
STARK (Starknet): Scalable and secure ZK-Rollup protocol
MANTA (Manta Network): Modular L2 with a focus on ZK privacy
〈CoinRank Exclusive: Ethereum’s $3K Rally – How US-China Trade Peace and Pectra Upgrade Could Ignite ETH〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。
