1. From a technical perspective: the stock price has risen sharply, but there is a "retracement sword" hanging over its head
How crazy is this rise?
At the end of May, two big positive lines suddenly appeared, directly breaking through the previous pressure level, just like driving a car with the floor gas. Especially on the 27th, the price fell and then quickly pulled up (long lower shadow), indicating that many people thought it was "cheap" and bought it quickly, and the bulls (bullish people) were very strong.
But here comes the problem: the price is rising too fast! The price is getting further and further away from the short-term moving average (such as EMA7), just like a kite flying too far and the string is about to break. The technical indicator RSI has soared to 85 (normally, above 70 is called overbought, which means overbought), and it may turn downward at any time.
What might happen next?
Support level: If it falls, $50 is a key position (where it fell to the bottom and rebounded before). If it falls below 50, it may fall to $48 or even $46 (if it falls below 46, you have to run quickly, the trend may reverse).
Pressure level: Looking upward, $55 is a hurdle (near the recent high), and $57 is even more difficult to break through (close to the historical high, many people are stuck here waiting to sell).
2. The “driving force” behind the market: speculation and big money are causing trouble
Why is the price rising? It’s all due to the concept and funds
TRB is a Meme coin (it has no practical use and relies purely on hype). Recently, it has been associated with the AI concept, which is like putting a "high-tech" label on it to attract a lot of people to buy it.
On-chain data shows that large funds (whales) are buying and selling frequently, and prices vary between exchanges (such as Binance and OKX). Some people take the opportunity to arbitrage (buy low and sell high to make a profit), which makes prices even more chaotic.
What are the risks? It’s all traps!
Market manipulation: This kind of small-cap coin is easily controlled by big players. They can push it up or smash it as they please. Retail investors who follow suit and buy it are likely to be ripped off.
The platform is causing trouble: In the past, there were exchanges where prices suddenly plummeted (spikes), or orders were blocked and transactions were not allowed. Retail investors had no time to react and suffered heavy losses in minutes.
It will become unpopular once the popularity dies down: Meme coins are all supported by popularity. Once people are tired of talking about the concept of AI, or the project owner suddenly sells the coins, the price can fall like a waterfall, such as the previous PEPE coin.
3. What should ordinary people do? Remember the "Three No Principles"
Don’t chase high prices: Prices are already high now, just like climbing to the top of a mountain. It may seem beautiful, but it hurts to fall down. RSI overbought means there are too many buyers, and maybe the main force is secretly selling.
Don’t bet heavily: If you really want to play, just take some pocket money and try it (don’t bet more than 20%), don’t bet all your assets. Set a stop loss (for example, you must sell when it drops to $46), and take the loss as a lesson.
Don’t follow the crowd: It’s normal to be jealous when seeing others making money, but they may be “shills” or have been lying in wait for a long time. Look more at the trading volume (it has been decreasing day by day recently, indicating that fewer people are chasing the rise) and the movements of large investors, and don’t be the last one to take over.
Conclusion: This is a "greater fool game" where winning or losing depends on luck
TRB's current market is just like the traditional financial investment bank Cantor doing Bitcoin loans. The traditional and the emerging have created sparks, but the essence is still speculation. It may rise and fall in the short term, but there is no fundamental support in the long term (such as no actual products or profits), and it relies entirely on speculation to survive.
Bottom line: If you want to make quick money, you can gamble a little, but don’t take it seriously; if you want to be safe, stay as far away from this kind of currency as possible.
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