BTC has reached a crucial milestone: 93% of its total supply has already been mined. With only 1.4 million BTC left to be mined by 2140, the asset's planned scarcity is becoming more palpable than ever.
🧮 A constantly decreasing offer
Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has followed a predefined issuance schedule, with mining rewards halving every 210,000 blocks (~4 years).
Currently, the reward is 3.125 BTC per block, up from 50 BTC originally.
This exponential reduction means that 99% of BTC will be mined by 2035, but the last satoshis will not be mined until around 2140.
🔐 A real supply of less than 21 million
Although the cap is set at 21 million BTC, estimates from Chainalysis and Glassnode suggest that 3 to 3.8 million BTC are permanently lost, particularly due to misplaced private keys or forgotten wallets.
Thus, the actual circulating supply would be between 16 and 17 million BTC, reinforcing the scarcity of the asset.
🪙 Bitcoin vs Gold: Increased Scarcity
Unlike gold, where 85% of the supply has been mined but remains in circulation, Bitcoin has a unique feature: lost BTC is irrecoverable, permanently reducing the available supply.
This characteristic gives Bitcoin an increasing scarcity, potentially more pronounced than that of gold.
📈 Consequences for investors
Increased volatility: Limited supply makes the market more sensitive to demand.
Valuation of active BTC: Actual available BTC could trade at a premium.
Importance of security: Loss of private keys results in permanent loss of funds.
🧠 Prepare for the era of scarcity
Given this dynamic, it is essential to understand the implications of Bitcoin scarcity and adapt your investment strategy accordingly.