Midnight BTC Trend Scenario Analysis
Scenario 1: Accelerated Bottom Testing
Trigger Condition: Price falls below $107,500
First Support: $105,800-$106,300
Second Support: $102,800-$103,500
Scenario 2: Oversold Rebound
Trigger Condition: Price stabilizes at $108,000
Resistance 1: $109,000-$109,500
Resistance 2: $110,000-$110,500 (Short Stop-Loss Zone + Technical Pullback Level).
Scenario 3: Liquidity Black Hole
Extreme Event: Mt. Gox creditors confirm the initiation of 100,000 BTC compensation, U.S. Treasury sanctions mainstream exchanges.
Impact Range: Price may flash crash below $100,000
Operational Strategy
1. Short Strategy
- Current Price Short Selling: Short positions in the $107,800-$108,200 range, stop loss at $109,000, target $105,800-$106,300.
2. Long Strategy
- Left Side Bottom Fishing: If the price drops sharply to $103,500, take a small position long, stop loss at $102,800, target $106,000-$107,000.
- Right Side Signal: After a strong breakout above $110,000, pull back to go long, stop loss at $109,000, target $112,000.
