SOL has risen 18% but has been unable to break through $180 for a while, with a horizontal range forming. Is this a buildup of bullish momentum, or is the double top risk quietly brewing? The 'escape top line' at $215, do bulls have a chance to break through?



While the entire market focuses on the phased performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana (SOL) is quietly experiencing a critical technical turning point.


Since the rebound in May, SOL's price has remained stable above $165. Despite the significant pressure at $184 above, the overall trend remains strong, and the daily chart has formed a highly watched structure: bullish flag pattern vs. Fibonacci retracement double top risk coexist.



I. Solana's horizontal trend intensifies technical battles, with $165 becoming a key 'bull-bear dividing line.'


Currently, the price of SOL is in a classic price squeeze:


  • Upper resistance: $184 (61.8% Fibonacci level) → potential double top formation point;


  • Lower support: $165 (50% Fibonacci level) + 200-day EMA providing support at $163;



If it falls below $165, the subsequent decline will directly point to:


  • 50-day moving average support: $158;


  • Lower 38.2% Fibonacci level: $148;


  • Psychological support level: $150.



In other words, $165 is the core front line that bulls 'must defend.' Once lost, the double top pattern will be basically confirmed, and the market will turn to a retracement expectation.



II. Daily level: Bullish flag pattern is poised to break out, with $200 as the 'explosive target.'


According to renowned analyst Lark Davis's observations:


  • SOL has currently formed a standard bullish flag pattern;


  • If bulls can continuously hold above the 20-day EMA at $169 + the 200-day EMA at $163;


  • Then it is highly likely to complete an upper breakout in the coming days, initiating a new round of gains.



Fibonacci retracement further provides target references:


  • First target level: $215 (78.6% Fibonacci level);


  • If it breaks out with volume, the next extension target is: $261 (expansion level).



The K-line evolution model in the Mlion.ai chart strategy module has also repeatedly indicated that if the current consolidation period can break through $184, momentum will quickly switch to an upward mode.



III. Is the derivatives market pouring cold water? Both open interest and financing rates are bearish.


From on-chain data and contract dynamics, market sentiment has not fully resonated with the technical patterns.


  • Open interest has decreased by 1.09%, currently at $7.25 billion;


  • In the past 24 hours of liquidations, bullish liquidations reached as high as $4.92 million, far exceeding bearish liquidations of $1.36 million;


  • Financing rates have dropped to -0.0035%, reflecting that bears hold a slight advantage in the market in the short term.


This means that although the spot price is bullish, contract funds are avoiding risk, and speculative funds are retreating.


Mlion.ai recommends utilizing its 'derivatives sentiment monitoring system' to track contract data in real-time, observing whether positions and sentiment reverse in sync when prices are about to break through key technical levels.



IV. Mlion.ai strategy tips: Three core focus lines.


  1. Whether to break through the $184 pressure: Whether it can stabilize with volume will determine if the upcoming main upward wave is valid;


  2. Strength of defense at the $165 bottom line: If this level is broken, the bullish logic will be quickly undermined;


  3. Synchronization of contract positions and capital flow: Spot breakouts require the cooperation of futures capital to form real momentum explosions.



By utilizing Mlion.ai's visual diagram function and AI chart prediction tools, investors can one-click view Fibonacci levels, crossing moving averages, and pattern evolution paths, making technical trends no longer rely solely on 'gut feelings.'



Summary: The breakout moment for SOL is approaching, and the key window for choosing direction is opening.


Currently, SOL is at a highly tense technical structure edge: a breakout could lead to a surge, while a breakdown could result in a reversal. The bullish flag pattern clashes with the risk of a Fibonacci double top, with $165-$184 becoming the core battleground for bulls and bears.


Whether this round can achieve a structure breakout similar to that of 2021 still requires attention to trading volume and whether derivatives positions 'perform in sync.'


The current consolidation may not necessarily indicate hesitation; it could also be a buildup of strength.


Using Mlion.ai's strategy diagram tool, quickly dissect SOL's structural opportunities, find critical signals before the breakout; perhaps the next surge is hidden in this round of silence.


#sol

Disclaimer: The above content is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!