On May 27, Decrypt reported that Google quantum researcher Craig Gidney published a paper stating that the quantum resources required to break 2048-bit RSA encryption (similar to the encryption principles of Bitcoin wallets) have decreased by 20 times compared to predictions made in 2019.
New research shows that a quantum computer with fewer than one million noisy qubits can complete the decryption in a week, whereas the previous estimate required 20 million.
This breakthrough is attributed to algorithm optimization and improvements in error correction technology. Currently, the most advanced IBM Condor quantum computer has only 1,121 qubits and poses no actual threat, but IBM plans to release a 100,000 qubit model by 2033, while Quantinuum aims for full fault tolerance by 2029.
The cryptocurrency sector is already working on quantum-resistant solutions, with Solana developing a quantum vault and Vitalik proposing a fork to address the threat.
It is noteworthy that the quantum research organization Project11 has established a $85,000 prize for teams that use quantum computers to break a simplified version of Bitcoin encryption (with a 25-bit key) to assess the urgency of the threat.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology in the United States released post-quantum encryption standards last year, recommending a gradual phase-out of vulnerable systems after 2030, and Google's research suggests that this timeline may need to be accelerated.