$BTC Supporting Factors for the Uptrend
• Technical Momentum: Moving averages and RSI support the uptrend.
• Fundamentals: ETF fund flows, the halving effect (April 2024), and regulatory optimism in the United States enhance the likelihood of a breakout.
• Historical Context: Historical Bitcoin cycles (especially post-halving) often lead to strong rallies in the following months.
Contrary Factors
• Strong Resistance: Levels of $108,000-$112,000 create a strong psychological and technical barrier, which may lead to price rejection if there isn't enough momentum.
• Lack of Volume: The absence of a sharp increase in trading volume reduces confidence in an immediate breakout.
• Selling Pressure: Whales may sell at resistance to take profits, leading to a correction.
My Opinion
The current pattern on the daily timeframe (bearish wedge/accumulation triangle) is neutral with an upward bias due to the broader bullish context. The probability of the pattern turning bullish is high if:
• The price closes above $112,000 on the daily candle with an increase in trading volume.
• A strong bullish candle (like a bullish engulfing) or positive news (like ETF inflows or regulatory developments) appears.
However, if the price is rejected at $108,000-$112,000 with a bearish candle or declining volume, the pattern could temporarily turn bearish, with a potential correction to $101,000 or $97,000.