Brothers, I missed the recent rise of Bitcoin, didn't buy any altcoins, and now I'm sitting in cash watching. Will it continue to rise? Can I short it? I'm so anxious! What should I do?
Recently, many people might be feeling this kind of anxiety. Missing out is certainly regrettable, but losing money due to FOMO (fear of missing out) is probably even worse. First of all, don't rush to make money in this situation; try to analyze the current state of the market.
Let's start with the conclusion: it will rise.
1: Timing
The last week of each month generally doesn't have any major market movements, no significant data is released, and it is close to the end of the month. The market lacks liquidity, so a big rise or fall is unlikely to happen, which means that the price movement in the next few days will lean more towards a consolidation phase.
As for what kind of rise or fall counts as significant, a daily fluctuation in BTC of more than 5% would be considered so. Movements within 5% generally belong to a large range of fluctuations, and for ultra-short trades, drawing boxes for tops and bottoms can also yield decent profit margins.
2: Technical Aspects
Without discussing indicators, let's analyze purely from a pattern perspective. BTC has not shown any signs of reaching a peak; there should be at least one more push to new highs to liquidate the short liquidity above, which would be considered healthy.
If you are afraid of heights and hesitant to go long, then now is also not the right time to go short; the same applies to ETH. The recent exchange rate of ETH/BTC has broken out of the sluggish trend of the past few years and is now basically aligned with ETH/USDT. Focus on risk management and seize this wave of market movement this year.
Summary:
In the short term, the probability of seeing a deep correction in the market to allow everyone to get on board is low. The recent low points of the daily fluctuations over the past two weeks are likely the recent lowest points.
The month is about to change, with May showing a full bullish candle. Even if June sees a decline, how much could it drop? Of course, if a black swan event occurs that triggers systemic risks, like the Luna collapse in 2021 that caused my bankruptcy, then one would have to accept losses and exit the market.
This personal analysis is for reference only and should not be taken as investment advice.
