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Google’s Quantum Computing Breakthrough Raises Alarms for Bitcoin Security
In a recent development, Google announced that breaking RSA encryption—used widely across digital security, including crypto wallets—may require 20 times fewer quantum resources than previously estimated. In December 2024, the company introduced its new quantum computing chip, Willow, claiming it could theoretically break Bitcoin's encryption in as little as two days.
Google's researchers demonstrated that Willow could solve, in just five minutes, a problem that would take classical supercomputers an estimated 10 septillion years. At launch, critics expressed concerns that Willow could surpass Bitcoin’s hash rate within minutes, alter its blockchain, or even gain access to dormant wallets such as those associated with Satoshi Nakamoto.
Craig Gidney, a quantum researcher at Google, emphasized that the trajectory of quantum advancements signals a growing threat to cryptographic systems. He noted that RSA-2048 encryption could now be compromised in under a week using fewer than one million noisy qubits—a significant reduction from his 2019 estimate of 20 million qubits for the same task.
Although current digital assets remain secure, Gidney urged early planning for post-quantum cryptography (PQC). Google attributes the breakthrough to improved algorithms and enhanced error correction. These advancements include doubling the speed of modular exponentiations and increasing logical qubit density via layered error correction. Additionally, techniques like magic state cultivation have improved quantum efficiency.
Given that Bitcoin uses elliptic curve cryptography, which shares foundational similarities with RSA, these findings compress the timeline in which BTC could be vulnerable.
Meanwhile, Project 11 has launched the Q-Day Prize, offering 1 BTC (approx. $85,000) to the first team that can break a simplified version of Bitcoin's encryption using a quantum computer—highlighting the urgency of the quantum threat.