Emergency Notice, Big Changes Are Coming!

Several major events have occurred recently

that directly affect the volatility of Bitcoin prices, let's break it down in plain language

1. Trump Delays Tariffs, Bitcoin Soars

Originally, Trump was set to impose a 50% high tariff on EU goods on June 1, but on Sunday he suddenly changed his stance, saying he would postpone the decision until July 9, allowing both sides six weeks to negotiate.

As soon as this news broke, Bitcoin immediately rebounded from its low on Sunday night, soaring to over $109,000, almost touching the $110,000 mark. The market felt that the risk of a trade war had temporarily eased, and capital was willing to enter the market again.

2. Futures Market Reveals 'Gambler's Mentality'

The 'financing rate' for Bitcoin suddenly skyrocketed, indicating that many people are borrowing money to bet on Bitcoin continuing to rise.

This is similar to gamblers in a casino who are frantically increasing their bets, feeling that a big win is imminent.

Currently, the total amount of bets in the futures market (open contracts) has also rebounded to over $75 billion, indicating that large capital is at work.

3. Institutional Giants Hint at Increasing Positions

The CEO of MicroStrategy, the number one 'Bitcoin Hoarder,' posted a mysterious tweet: 'I only buy Bitcoin with money I can afford to lose,' interpreted as a signal for a significant purchase. This company has already hoarded 500,000 Bitcoins, worth over $50 billion.

4. But Historical Data Pours Cold Water on the Frenzy

Analysts point out that Bitcoin has risen for seven consecutive weeks, which is very rare in history.

In the past eight years, there have only been three instances of eight consecutive weeks of gains, and there has never been a case of nine consecutive weeks of gains.

After every instance of seven to eight consecutive weeks of gains, there is a 70% probability that the following week will see a decline, although the long-term outlook (six months to one year) remains bullish.

So there may be a short-term risk of a pullback.

Summary: Trump's delay of tariffs has relieved market pressure, coupled with potential institutional buying, Bitcoin has surged to nearly $110,000.

However, after seven consecutive weeks of gains, a pullback could happen at any time, just like needing to catch your breath during a marathon.

In the long term, the overall trend remains upward, but be cautious of getting trapped if chasing highs in the short term.

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