The dollar has weakened for five consecutive months, and the Asian stock market's response has been flat; what truly triggers the market's long and short battle is Trump's 'trade pause button'—is this just a brief breather or the beginning of a deeper global financial reshuffle?
As investors are still assessing Bitcoin's breakout above $110,000 and Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, the traditional financial market is once again experiencing structural volatility.
Recent news indicates that U.S. President Trump unexpectedly postponed the planned 50% tariffs on EU goods originally set for June, pushing the deadline back to July 9, which has sparked short-term optimism in the market regarding 'risk assets'.
However, at the same time, the dollar has quietly entered its fifth consecutive month of decline, and Asian stock markets are underperforming, with MSCI Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) down 0.17%, the Nikkei index slightly down 0.15%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng down 0.1%.
Trump's attitude shifts: Risk aversion eases, but uncertainty escalates.
This time, Trump's 'hawkish' operation has superficially eased market tension, with Nasdaq futures up 1.26% and S&P 500 futures up 1.11%, reflecting some investors' reassessment of the negotiation window.
IG analyst Tony Sycamore pointed out:
"The postponement to July 9 may provide an opportunity for short-term rebalancing, but the real driving force remains around the end of the month, especially after Nvidia's earnings report and Fed officials' speeches."
The market is betting that expectations for AI profits and signals of a shift in monetary policy may redefine asset allocation logic.
Dollar softens: falling for the fifth consecutive month, appeal as a safe haven diminishes.
According to data, the dollar index is on track to fall for the fifth consecutive month. If this trend continues, it will mark the longest decline since 2017.
The euro is hovering around 1.14035 against the dollar, close to a one-month high;
The yen appreciated nearly 0.5% against the dollar, trading at 142.18;
The dollar's influence in gold, euro, and Asia-Pacific stock markets is significantly weakening.
Julius Baer economist David Meyer stated:
"Not just short-term sentiment, but structural changes in the dollar system have been brewing—high deficits, low fiscal stability, and a twin deficit structure make dollar depreciation a natural path."
This means: Global investors are attempting to gradually break away from structural reliance on the dollar, and the market's main narrative is quietly shifting.
Asian stock markets fell in response, and the market has entered a 'passive wait-and-see' mode.
Despite a rebound in Wall Street futures, the Asian market is reacting significantly more conservatively:
The CSI 300 fell slightly by 0.06%, and the Shanghai Composite Index remained flat;
The Nikkei 225 fell slightly by 0.15%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.1%.
Behind this is the market's renewed unease about future policies, exchange rates, and global liquidity.
In particular, the drop in Japanese long-term bond yields during the morning reflects that investors are making defensive deployments for mid-term financial fluctuations.
Gold and oil prices: similarly caught in a 'difficult position'.
Gold slightly fell 0.28% from this year's high, trading at $3,332.91/oz;
Brent crude fell 0.1%, while WTI fell 0.16%.
The underlying reason is not complicated:
Gold: Safe-haven sentiment eased briefly, suppressing its short-term gains;
Oil: With the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, the market finds it hard to predict whether production will increase, with traders remaining cautious.
Worth noting: Fed speeches + PCE data + Tokyo global central bank summit.
The next three 'variable events' this week are worth high vigilance:
The frequency of Fed officials speaking is increasing; the market will seek new monetary policy guidance;
On Friday, the U.S. PCE core price index will be released, which is the inflation measure most closely watched by the Fed;
The Bank of Japan is hosting a global central bank governors' meeting., forces outside the G7 will express strong opposition to U.S. policies at the meeting.
Under the influence of these three overlapping events, whether the dollar will weaken further, whether U.S. stocks can maintain momentum, and whether the Asian market will reverse will be a defining moment.
Mlion.ai suggests: Multi-chain assets and cross-currency strategies are entering a window of opportunity.
As traditional markets enter a reallocation phase, the crypto market is likely to become the first stop for liquidity overflow. Especially against the backdrop of a retreating dollar, investors should pay attention to:
Changes in USDT and USDC flows (capturing inflow signals in the crypto space);
The policy sensitivity of assets such as XRP, XLM, WBTC, etc., related to 'cross-border + payments';
With the rise in BTC dominance, altcoin performance is diverging; prefer high-growth potential coins;
Utilizing Mlion.ai's strategy diagram and price prediction features, construct a multi-currency portfolio model to seek swing opportunities in turbulent times.
Summary: The dollar falls, the market is chaotic, is the turning point of sentiment near?
Do not be misled by Trump's 'hawkish' stance; this is likely a 'transactional appeasement' rather than a structural change. The real trend signals will emerge from liquidity movements, central bank dynamics, and investor reallocations.
The relationship between Bitcoin and traditional assets is being restructured. Mlion.ai can help you monitor large funds' reallocation behavior, major on-chain positions, and cross-currency trading opportunities in real time.
Don't wait for market sentiment to turn before entering; the real strategy is to recognize the storm path in advance.
Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!
