The Harsh Truth of the Crypto Market: 90% Are Destined to Miss the Trends, How to Be Among the 10%?

1. The Nature of Trends

1. Trends are not technical indicators but rather a collective outburst of market sentiment. Moving averages and candlesticks are merely post-fact verification tools.

- The true trends often defy common sense in their early formation.

2. Trends have exclusivity.

- They do not cater to everyone's understanding. By the time you understand, the optimal timing has passed.

2. Cognitive Pitfall Warnings

1. Three Common Mistakes

Over-reliance on technical analysis (taking results as causes) - Pursuing a "perfect entry point" (missing the entire wave) - Applying old experiences to new market conditions (carving a boat to seek a sword).

2. Hard-learned Lessons:

- Last year, investors who stubbornly held onto the ETH ecosystem missed the explosive opportunities in the SOL ecosystem.

- Recent observers who ignored the RWA track.

3. Practical Response Strategies

1. Establish Dual-Track Thinking

- Left track: Core assets like BTC (store of value) - Right track: Hot assets like meme coins (sentiment speculation).

2. Grasp the Switching Rhythm

- Large capital flows look at on-chain data - Market sentiment looks at social media trends - Technical breakthroughs look at developer dynamics.

3. Position Management Rules

- Core position (50%) - Trend position (30%) - Cash position (20%).

4. Current Market Opportunities

1. Three Major Trends Not to Be Ignored: - RWA (Real World Assets on-chain) - AI + Blockchain Combined Applications - Infrastructure Development for High-Performance Chains.

2. Risks to Be Cautious Of: - Overhyped concept coins - Illiquid small coins - Projects with continuous team sell-offs.

5. Ultimate Recommendations

1. Cultivate Market Sensitivity

Spend 1 hour daily tracking smart money movements - Build your own information filtering system.

2. Train Execution Ability

Set clear entry/exit criteria - Develop a habit of regular review.

Remember: In this market, cognitive differences always determine profit differences. Don't expect to achieve excess returns using ordinary thinking; those who consistently make money are thinking in dimensions you cannot see.

(Note: It is recommended that beginners start by observing the ecological development of 3-5 quality projects to practice trend judgment, rather than heavily betting from the start.)