While everyone cheers for BTC breaking the historical high of $110,000, seasoned traders sense danger - this seemingly crazy bull market is essentially a carefully planned harvesting war by U.S. debt buyers.
The pressure of $6 trillion in U.S. debt maturing before June 30 is forcing the U.S. government to use the crypto market to create a "wealth illusion", pushing retail investors into the trap of absorbing U.S. debt.
Countdown to U.S. debt collapse: The "blame-shifting strategy" under collective selling by national institutions.
According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, the scale of U.S. debt maturing this year has reached $6.2 trillion, while overseas central bank holdings have declined for 12 consecutive months, with traditional U.S. debt buyers like China and Japan reducing their holdings by more than $500 billion. When institutional investors vote with their feet, the U.S. urgently needs to create new channels for absorbing debt - the cryptocurrency market has become the best target.
By driving up BTC prices to create a wealth effect and attract retail investors to rush in, it essentially replicates the "risk transfer script" of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Data shows that since April, the holdings of U.S. retail investors in cryptocurrencies have surged by 37%, while the outflow of funds from U.S. debt ETFs during the same period reached $12 billion. The trajectory of fund migration confirms this "pass-the-parcel" game.
The stablecoin bill is essentially a "U.S. debt distributor": USDT/USDC is degrading into a debt tool.
The fatal secret hidden in the stablecoin regulation bill passed in May: The bill requires compliant stablecoins to maintain 100% reserves in dollars or U.S. debt. This means that for every $1 stablecoin issued, the issuer must purchase $1 in U.S. debt - stablecoins like USDT and USDC, which account for 85% of the global market, are being forced to become automatic underwriters of U.S. debt.
On-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term U.S. debt in USDT reserves soared from 23% to 41% in May, corresponding to a new U.S. debt purchase volume of $18 billion. More intriguingly, when retail investors buy BTC with stablecoins, it indirectly provides liquidity for U.S. debt - the more funds attracted by rising prices, the larger the issuance scale of stablecoins, solidifying the chain of U.S. debt absorption. Retail investors are becoming the "last buyers": three major danger signals are warning.
Mad rallies diverging from fundamentals: The correlation between BTC market cap and U.S. M2 money supply has reached 0.92, completely detaching from the basic fundamentals of the blockchain ecosystem, becoming a purely policy-driven "financial tool";
Abnormal exchange leverage: Platforms like Binance and Coinbase have persistent positive funding rates for perpetual contracts, with retail long positions reaching 78%, a typical precursor to a "trap for longs";
Regulatory crackdown: The cryptocurrency bill being advanced by the SEC simultaneously defines 90% of tokens as "securities". Once BTC is brought under regulation, the current chasing high funds will face compliance strangulation.
Smart money's response strategy: How to avoid this national-level harvesting.
Reject chasing high prices: Historical data shows that when retail investors' holdings exceed 45%, the probability of market correction reaches 83%. The current critical threshold of 42% has already raised alarms;
Shift to the real demand track: avoid "policy tool currencies" like BTC/ETH and focus on RWA (real-world assets on-chain), compliant stablecoin infrastructure, and other areas that truly address financial pain points;
Keep a close eye on the U.S. Treasury yield curve: When the inversion between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields narrows to 50 basis points, it may trigger a policy shift, at which point will be a safe window for positioning.
This "financial magic" that began with the U.S. debt crisis will ultimately end with the transfer of wealth from retail investors. Remember: when the market is unanimously bullish, it is the time of highest risk. A true bull market never relies on the debt games of a single country but is built on technological innovation and real demand. It is now time to calmly examine the national-level manipulators behind the price candlesticks.
