【Hype Short Selling Observation】The short-sellers have already hit the road, but we still have to wait a bit!

How intense is Hype's buyback effort right now? They're spending $5 million a day to support the market, and at this rate, they won't even burn through $1 billion for the whole year—after all, the bear market cycle is upon us. In my opinion, a daily income of $5 million is already the ceiling, and the growth potential is smaller than the tip of a needle.

What’s even more concerning are the two mountains: the second phase of airdrop unlock and the release of team shares. Based on fully diluted valuation (FDV), once the 37 billion market cap is fully circulated, the price-to-earnings ratio will soar to 40 times; right now, the circulating market cap already has a PE of 13 times, making it neither cheap nor expensive.

Centralized exchanges rely on burning money for growth, while decentralized exchanges are playing compliance arbitrage—mainly targeting U.S. users and those in regions with restricted contracts. The marketing budget is pitifully small, and user scale is being rubbed against the ground by CEX.

Hype's competitors are sharpening their knives: Ethreal has reached a TVL of $1 billion even before its launch, Lighter just lifted the $250,000 deposit limit, and its TVL has already surpassed $100 million, with daily trading volume firmly in second place in the industry. The ceiling is within reach, with strong competitors lurking on both sides; shorting now is indeed a bit premature, but…

Although many big players are still bullish on Hype, in my view, this could be the perfect short-sell target—large capacity, good liquidity, and a clear logic for decline. Having played around in the perpetual contract DEX space for a while, I've noticed that Hype's users are all smart money, fleeing faster than rabbits. This long vs. short showdown is sure to be exciting!

Moreover, it’s worth noting that James, Hype's top supporter, has recently encountered significant losses, which will inevitably affect the confidence of Hype holders, leading to sell-offs.

If you don't believe it, let’s keep an eye on it later!