1. The essence of rolling positions: Profit proliferation VS Risk loss of control
The fatal misunderstanding of 90% of contract players lies in equating rolling positions with "floating profit increases" as a gambling operation - during market pullbacks, blindly adding positions will accelerate risk accumulation, ultimately leading to zero compounded returns. The core of scientific rolling positions is to build a profit compounding system through trend confirmation + position discipline, ensuring that each increase is based on the certainty of "technical breakout + volume verification."
2. Three-dimensional discipline system for trend trading
1. Trend confirmation rule (eliminate chasing up during consolidation)
Entry signal: Daily level breakout of the previous high + trading volume surged by 1.5 times; pullback does not break the moving average / Fibonacci level (e.g., ETH pulls back to $2,500 support).
Prohibited scenario: Frequent position increases during sideways consolidation, avoid being washed out and stop-lossed by the main force.
2. Position pyramid model (first position ≤5%, leverage 5-10X)
First position trial and error: Build position with 5% of funds (e.g., use $5,000 of a $100,000 capital), leave room for volatility;
Laddered increasing position: Add 3% position for every key level broken (e.g., BTC breaks $60,000), prohibit one-time full position.
3. Dynamic stop loss stair climbing (lock in profit bottom line)
First position stop loss: Set at 3%-5% of entry price (e.g., open long at $1,000, stop loss at $950);
Position increase linkage: After each increase, move stop loss to previous position cost price (increase position after breaking $1,100, move stop loss to $1,000).
3. Golden triangle signal for capturing main upward waves
K-line pattern: Long bullish breakout from the consolidation range, body length is more than twice that of the previous day;
Volume verification: Trading volume increased by 1.5 times compared to the average of the previous 3 days, significant net inflow of funds;
Market sentiment: Contract open interest surged, spot premium rate > 3% (e.g., BTC premium rate exceeds 3%).
Trading strategy: 3-5 times leverage base position + 2-3% floating position to gradually chase the rise, take profit at 80% profit in the main upward wave.
4. Double insurance mechanism for profit locking
1. Three-step profit protection method
Profit 20%: Move stop loss to cost price (ensure no loss);
Profit 50%: Move stop loss to cost price + 30% (lock in basic profit);
When hitting a new high: Take profit on 20% of the position for each breakout.
2. Trend reversal clear out signal
Breaking below the 4-hour MA10 moving average;
Sharp decrease in trading volume + price breaking below previous low, immediately clear remaining positions.
5. Practical cases and risk warnings
In the 2021 ETH market from $2,000 to $4,800, players who strictly implemented "5% base position + dynamic stop loss" achieved 100 times return on a $50,000 capital, with a maximum drawdown of ≤15%. However, it's important to clarify: rolling positions are a discipline tool, not an infallible rule, and must adhere to three major bottom lines:
Do not guess tops and bottoms, only increase positions based on trend confirmation;
Always maintain more than 30% liquidity in position;
Refuse to hold on, give up the last 10% tail end of the market.
