A Bitcoin Weekly Analysis | SFP at All-Time High – Pullback Incoming?
Let’s dive straight into the price action.
BTC/USD (Weekly Chart)
Suggested Image: Updated weekly BTC/USD chart showing the current price action near ATH with annotations.
Last week, Bitcoin failed to hold above its previous all-time high — a classic Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) or what many would call a fakeout. It’s too early to call this the beginning of a major pullback, but the price is reacting around a key zone (the ATH), which makes it a level worth watching.
Macro Context: Trump & EU Tariff Delay
Suggested Image: Headline or snapshot showing the Trump tariff news.
There’s speculation that this move was triggered by former President Trump’s announcement to delay the proposed 50% tariffs on the EU until July 9. Ironically, when the tariff plan was initially announced, BTC dropped below the ATH — and now with the delay, we see a spike back above it. The takeaway? This could be more about market sentiment reacting to headlines rather than a fundamental breakout.
What to Expect Next?
The daily chart may offer more actionable insights for planning upcoming trades.
Suggested Image: Daily BTC/USD chart highlighting key support/resistance levels.
Since the news came just before the weekly close, many traders are now reacting impulsively. Also, keep in mind that today is Memorial Day in the U.S., which might keep traditional markets closed and reduce liquidity.
Scenario 1: Continuation Higher
If BTC holds above the ATH, I won’t be rushing in just yet — mainly because the breakout was news-driven and we’re seeing signs of a weekly fakeout. But if it consolidates and shows strength above the previous ATH, new highs are definitely on the table.
Scenario 2: Pullback
A rejection at this level could lead to a pullback — potentially down to or even below the $100K psychological level. If that happens, I’ll be ready with my setup.
Final Thoughts
We’ve got two clear scenarios. Whichever one gives us the trigger first, I’m prepared to take action.
