Is a prediction calling for a rise to 500 dollars really reliable? When SOL's MVRV is still far below historical highs and major wallets are quietly increasing their holdings, will you choose to follow the data or trust the market's calm 'rational voting'?



In the current bullish atmosphere of the crypto market, Solana (SOL) has become one of the most closely watched assets among many mainstream altcoins. Recently, veteran trader Peter Brandt spoke again, believing that SOL's performance could far exceed XRP, and even has the potential to challenge historical highs—prices above 500 dollars.


Behind this prediction, there is not only structural deduction on technical charts but also strong support from on-chain data. However, at the same time, some market participants still maintain a wait-and-see attitude, even believing that the chances of its rise and the probability of a pullback are each 50%. This divergence may be the true 'source of opportunity' in the market.



🔍 Technical chart: Cup and handle pattern indicating a 195% increase?


Peter Brandt's technical analysis indicates that SOL has currently formed a standard 'cup and handle pattern', which is one of the classic bullish patterns. According to the pattern calculation, once the breakout is successful, SOL could rise from the current price of around 177 dollars to 518 dollars, implying an increase of nearly 195%.


In contrast, Brandt's target price prediction for XRP is 4.4 dollars, which is only 87% higher than the current price. He bluntly stated, 'The potential performance of SOL is more than twice that of XRP.'


However, the technical pattern is only part of the prediction; what truly supports this trend are the on-chain behaviors and the market participation structure behind the assets.



📈 MVRV indicator: Valuation is far from overheated, is there still room at the top?


MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) is an important on-chain indicator for assessing the relative overvaluation or undervaluation of assets. In Solana's history:


  • When MVRV is above 2.5-3.5, it is often close to a local or cyclical top;


  • When SOL reached 260 dollars in 2021, MVRV once touched above 3.5;


  • And at the local high point in early 2024 (200 dollars), the MVRV was 2.5.



Currently, SOL's MVRV is only 1.2, significantly distant from the historically overheated zone. From a historical perspective, this indicates that there is still considerable room for growth, especially in the absence of any weakening market momentum.



🐋 Major wallet movements: Addresses holding over 1K SOL are continuously increasing


Aside from valuation, the distribution of on-chain funds is also an important signal for judging market trends.


  • Since March 2025, the number of wallets holding over 1000 SOL has increased from 21,600 to 23,000.


  • These addresses mostly belong to long-term investors or professional capital accounts.


  • The steady increase in numbers indicates that the market is continuously accumulating positions, rather than fleeing.



This trend reinforces the current judgment that the 'uptrend is not over yet', providing substantial support for technical predictions.



⚖️ Market sentiment: Polymarket predictions remain in a 'balanced state'


Although the technical and on-chain indicators are bullish, according to data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the market's expectations for SOL to reach a historical high in 2025 are almost 50/50.


This reflects a key phenomenon: the 'cognitive bias' between retail investors and institutions is intensifying. Institutions, based on on-chain behavior and structural judgment, believe SOL is about to usher in a new wave of bull market, while retail investors are more easily troubled by short-term fluctuations and historical 'high positions', falling into the 'fear of heights' mentality.


And this is precisely the best moment for smart capital to enter the market.



🧠 Using Mlion.ai to assist in judgment: not only looking at price but also at structural logic


In this type of cryptocurrency that has technical bullishness, on-chain data support, but market sentiment divergence, how do you judge the boundary between risk and opportunity?


At this time, Mlion.ai's multi-dimensional AI investment research system can play an important role:


  • The AI price prediction module combines on-chain behavior, candlestick structure, and social sentiment to predict the next phase of SOL's price movement;


  • The data dashboard feature can track changes in major wallets, real-time fluctuations in the MVRV indicator, and historical corresponding points;


  • The strategy diagram module can restore the 'cup and handle pattern' described by Peter Brandt, assessing the validity of the breakout and the potential target price;


  • In-depth analysis of news can help investors understand the capital logic behind on-chain dynamics, rather than just focusing on price fluctuations.



Mainstream coins on the verge of 'potential bursts' are most likely to produce structural market trends. What is needed for early positioning is not emotional impulse, but data armament.



Conclusion: Will you choose 50% wait-and-see or 50% advance positioning?


Solana's path has been drawn on technical charts and verified in on-chain wallets. What remains is a choice issue:


  • Will you sway with market sentiment or make a more rational judgment based on data?


  • Are you waiting for 'confirmation of the breakout' or using tools to assess 'validity of the breakout'?


Regardless of which choice you make, you might as well start your personalized Solana analysis path on Mlion.ai, using AI's perspective to re-evaluate structural opportunities in the bull market.


#sol

Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!