A major event has occurred recently! MSTR and $BTC are now going their separate ways, and it's quite interesting.
Bitcoin has reached new highs, while MSTR is still hanging around halfway up the mountain, clearly indicating that the market's attitude towards this Bitcoin perpetual motion machine is starting to cool down. After all, who wants to pay two dollars for something worth one dollar?
The bearish spread strategy proposed by 10x Research is essentially betting on a decline while leaving a way out for oneself. Buying put options at $370 is like betting that the stock price will drop below this point, while selling put options at $300 allows one to collect some premiums to hedge against risks. The essence of this strategy is that as long as the stock price stays between $300 and $370, one can make a profit, essentially harvesting the wear and tear of the market's faith in MSTR.
The underlying logic is quite brutal; previously, MSTR relied on a perpetual motion model of issuing bonds to buy coins, reaping significant benefits. However, recently issued preferred stock has seen interest rates soar to over 10%, equivalent to borrowing at high interest to stockpile coins. The market is starting to calculate how much Bitcoin has to rise to cover this cost.
Earlier this year, MSTR's market value was more than twice that of the Bitcoin it held; now the premium has shrunk to 70%. Smart money has long seen that this premium will eventually collapse; Wall Street shorts are simultaneously shorting MSTR while buying Bitcoin, clearly playing a game of manipulation and harvesting retail investors who chase after rising and falling prices.
One must keep a close eye on two variables: if Bitcoin surges again, it might bring MSTR back to life, but given the current market's sensitivity to high-interest financing, MSTR's own debt minefield is more likely to explode first. Ultimately, this precise sniping strategy is better suited for experienced operators.
I am preparing to list some cryptocurrencies that are suitable for bottom-fishing as part of a plan to double my investments; rather than going solo, it's better to work together in tough times, those who understand will seek.
