Is the 2025 altcoin season really coming? You will know after reading this
When Bitcoin stood at a high of $100,000 and Ethereum soared 18% in a single day, the altcoin market fell into a weird split. Meme coins such as $PEPE and $TRUMP hit new highs, while 70% of altcoins are still struggling in the abyss of the bear market. This split market is the core contradiction of the crypto market in 2025. Can the local carnival evolve into a full-scale altcoin season?
In the past three years, the three altcoin season pulses all showed that the market share of $BTC fell below 55%, triggering a capital overflow effect; Ethereum broke through the key resistance level to activate the market coefficient; the decline in the market value of stablecoins released liquidity. However, unlike the full bull market caused by ICO in 2017 or DeFi in 2021, these local markets are essentially directional explosions led by institutional funds. Asset management giants such as BlackRock accurately harvest market attention by manipulating public chain leaders such as Solana and Sui.
On May 24, the total market value of altcoins exceeded 1.2 trillion US dollars, setting a record high, but BTC is still in the dangerous range of 58.3%. This divergence exposes a fatal contradiction. Institutional funds are creating false prosperity through Meme coins to cover the withdrawal of the main players in tracks such as AI and RWA. What is more dangerous is that the Altcoin Season Index continues to be below 40, which means that only 13% of altcoins outperform Bitcoin, which is far from the threshold of a full bull market.
If Bitcoin pulls back to $85,000, more than $400 billion of liquidity will be released into the altcoin market; after the Cancun upgrade, the gas fee will be reduced by 83%, but the TVL is still stagnant at $48 billion, and a phenomenal DApp is needed to activate the on-chain activity; if the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates in September, the altcoin coefficient will be magnified to 3-5 times that of Bitcoin, but the current interest rate futures show a probability of less than 35%.
Want to get rich? Want to recover? Want to eat meat? Follow me and take you to the main rising wave of the bull market!
