Overview
The U.S. Secretary of the Treasury recently affirmed that the issue of public debt does not lie in the absolute figure but in management, stressing that the debt-to-GDP ratio is an important indicator. With the USDX exchange rate dropping to 98.8, near the bottom of 97.91 (April 21, 2025), the financial and crypto markets, especially Bitcoin (108,904 USD, CoinMarketCap, May 26, 2025), may face volatility. This article summarizes the Secretary's detailed views, their impact on the U.S. economy, the influence on crypto, and lessons for investors.
The perspective of the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
The U.S. Secretary of the Treasury emphasized that the absolute public debt figure is not the core issue, but the management and economic growth determine the ability to control debt. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the U.S. can both develop economically and maintain public debt at a sustainable level if the debt-to-GDP ratio remains stable. Currently, the U.S. public debt-to-GDP ratio is about 123% (World Bank, 2024), but if the economy grows faster than the debt rate, financial pressure will decrease.
Former Secretary Janet Yellen previously emphasized a similar view: the U.S. can 'grow out of debt' by promoting growth without extreme tightening measures. The current Secretary calls for a change in the economic trajectory, focusing on infrastructure, technology, and energy investments to stimulate long-term growth. This perspective reflects confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy, even as public debt exceeds $33 trillion (CBO, 2024).
USDX rate and economic context
The USDX exchange rate is currently at 98.8, near the bottom of 97.91 recorded on April 21, 2025 (FXCE, May 26, 2025), indicating that the USD is weakening against a basket of major currencies. This decline may be due to expectations that the Fed will maintain low interest rates after the PCE inflation data (expected 2.2%, May 30, 2025). A weak USDX typically supports the prices of risk assets like Bitcoin and gold but also raises concerns about imported inflation in the U.S.
The Fed's monetary policy, combined with a strategy for economic growth, will directly impact financial markets. If the U.S. promotes investment in technology and renewable energy, capital flow may shift from traditional assets to crypto, especially blockchain projects like Ethereum.
Impact on the crypto market
The weakening of the USDX and an optimistic view on controlling public debt create opportunities for crypto. Bitcoin, with a market capitalization of $2.15 trillion, often increases in price when the USD declines, as seen in the 2020–2021 cycle. If the Fed maintains an accommodative monetary policy, investment flows into Bitcoin and altcoins may increase. However, institutional investors like BlackRock (managing Bitcoin ETFs) will closely monitor Fed statements and PCE data to adjust their portfolios.
The expiration of Bitcoin options worth $13.8 billion on May 30, 2025 (Deribit) may amplify price volatility, especially as the USDX fluctuates near the bottom. Altcoins like $SOL and $ETH are also indirectly affected by market sentiment. The Secretary's perspective reinforces confidence in the U.S. economy, but crypto investors need to be cautious of macroeconomic risks.
Risk warning
Investing in cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, carries high risks due to price volatility and impacts from the U.S. economy, especially when the USDX is near the bottom of 97.91. Monetary policies and inflation data may cause short-term fluctuations. The information in this article is for reference only and is not investment advice. Please conduct thorough research (DYOR) before making decisions.