Should we rush into the presale opening? Understanding the control logic of 'crash vs take off' in one article
Is the opening price drop a chance to pick up bargains? Or a trap?
This question has troubled all Meme enthusiasts for three complete bull-bear cycles.
The truth is actually very simple: By seeing through the script of the project party and market makers, the win rate can be maximized.
Core Judgment:
Is the project trying to run away with the money, or go all in to pump the price?
Don't just look at the heat or believe in false promises, directly assess two things:
1⃣ Market maker's control strength
2⃣ Project fundamentals
Today we mainly discuss control logic, with a warning for valuable insights!
Case 1: Mirai's perfect control, taking off at the opening
Opening market value of 13M, with only 300K in the pool, 10% buy-sell tax, directly confounding big players:
First blow: Ridiculously shallow pool
• A 300K pool means big players can't get their hands on any tokens; any attempt to withdraw will result in a price drop, and no one dares to act.
Second blow: 10% buy-sell tax
• Paying tax even once results in a loss of tens of thousands of dollars, directly discouraging presale big players, and no one dares to play the airdrop game.
Third blow: Low cost to pump the price
• The market makers can easily push the price past previous highs, leading to automatic FOMO; control is stable.
Result? Mirai opened without any price drop, and shot straight up.
Case 2: Linux's epic selling scene
Opening market value of 20M, yet the pool offered 13M, revealing the project party's mindset:
Too thick a pool = High cost to pump the price
• Wanting to push the price up, each small advance requires substantial SOL, making it unfeasible.
But obtaining tokens is very easy
• The project party and presale big players can take as many tokens as they want, with no resistance to crashing the price, resulting in chaos.
Summary:
Cannot go up, but can drop quickly. The risk-reward ratio is explosively poor.
At that time, I publicly warned: Don't enter, don't sacrifice yourself.
In one sentence:
Shallow pool + High tax = Control tool; only when the price rises will someone take over.
Deep pool + No tax = Take as you please; whoever rushes in gets buried.
Don't fear a price drop at opening, fear a dead-end script with no rescue.
Projects that understand control can profit from presales; those that don't, 99% will see 'opening as peak.'
Next time you encounter a presale, don't just look at FOMO; consider the pool + taxes + market-making logic. Only those who understand this can deserve to profit in a bull market.
