In the early hours of today, the crypto market experienced severe fluctuations again:
Bitcoin has sharply dropped from a high of $111,000 to $108,000,
Ethereum is faring worse, dropping below $2,550, with several mainstream altcoins falling sharply.
The 'trigger' this time is not complicated—Trump's latest tariff remarks.
1. Trump reinitiated the tariff war, causing a surge in market risk aversion
In a public speech, Trump stated:
Imposing tariffs of up to 50% on EU goods
Even hinting at possible tariffs on products like the iPhone
Although there is still a distance from actual policies, the capital market has already reacted first:
U.S. stock futures have plunged short-term
The crypto market liquidated over $500 million in long positions within 5 minutes (covering BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, XRP, etc.)
This is a typical moment of 'good news has been digested, bad news pierces market expectations'.
2. On-chain data tells a different story: some are 'quietly accumulating during the dip'
Despite the severe price fluctuations, on-chain indicators still show strong institutional/big player accumulation signals:
📉 Bitcoin exchange holdings have fallen to 7.1%, the lowest since 2018
📉 The amount of Ethereum held on exchanges is below 4.9%, a historic low
📈 The on-chain accumulation trend score for BTC is 1.0 (full score), indicating continuous accumulation by the main players
📉 Despite some 'dormant large holders' transferring $9 million ETH to Kraken (suspected for selling or rebalancing), many whale addresses chose to accumulate ETH at lower levels
This indicates:
Market panic, but the main players are unafraid and see the pullback as a 'buying opportunity'.
3. Market observation: BTC is stronger than ETH, volatility will continue
Combining technical analysis and on-chain data, the current market can be interpreted as:
✅ As long as BTC holds above the previous high of $105K, it remains in a long-term bullish trend
❌ ETH faces obvious resistance levels and may continue to fluctuate in the short term
⚠️ If Trump continues to create 'macro geopolitical panic', volatility will be exacerbated
From a structural perspective, this round of decline is not due to a deterioration in crypto fundamentals, but rather a short-term disturbance from external macro events.
More importantly, these 'disturbances' have actually strengthened the long-term narrative logic of Bitcoin.
4. Why can crypto benefit from the 'trade war'?
If we go back to the first outbreak of the U.S.-China trade war in 2019, we will find a common point:
Trade tension → Global capital risk aversion → Strong dollar + rising gold → Crypto fund movements
Bitcoin, as a digital asset 'not controlled by sovereign fiat currency',
naturally benefits from rising macro uncertainty and demand for safe havens.
Especially in the context of increasing political interventions in asset prices by the dollar, BTC will be viewed as a 'policy-neutral' asset by more institutions.
5. You cannot ignore these positive signals:
🌐 The U.S. GENIUS Act stablecoin bill is making progress
🏦 HSBC has launched a tokenized deposit product in Hong Kong
💸 Several American banks are preparing to launch a joint stablecoin issuance plan
These events are all sending a common signal:
The legalization and institutionalization of crypto finance are progressing steadily.
That is to say: even if the price drops short-term today, the fundamentals are actually stronger than before.
