💎 Friends, starting today, I will be adding a 【Macro】 series to my content, while the existing 【Airdrop】 series will remain! Friends who need macro analysis can continue to follow me!
🔥 The U.S. fiscal situation continues to deteriorate, and the Federal Reserve's 'private sector' nature will not unconditionally support the U.S. government.
Recently, Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating by one notch to Aa1, citing a debt burden of $36 trillion, resulting in the loss of the last AAA rating from a major international agency, due to concerns over rising government debt and expanding budget deficits.
According to Bloomberg, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Thursday that the Federal Reserve is a 'structurally unique quasi-private entity,' formally confirming its private institution attributes. This indicates that the interests of the Federal Reserve are not completely aligned with those of the U.S. government. This ruling also provides assurance for Powell's reappointment, quelling speculation that the president could fire him, suggesting that the U.S. government cannot fully demand the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates against its own interests.
🔥 Conditions for the arrival of altcoin season
According to Decrypt, analyst Reece Hobson stated that the launch of altcoin season requires two conditions: first, the initiation of quantitative easing policies to inject more liquidity into the market; second, the market dominance of BTC (BTC.D) needs to reach about 70% (currently at 64%). Given the Federal Reserve's current pace of interest rate cuts, it seems difficult for massive liquidity to arrive.
🔥 Ethereum holding addresses return to profitability
Since December 2024, Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a significant sell-off, with the proportion of profitable addresses dropping from over 90% to 32% in April 2025. As ETH rebounds above $2600, about 60% of holders have returned to profitability. This is the first time since 2017 that ETH has experienced such drastic fluctuations.
🔥 Bitcoin hits a new high, but the frenzy phase has not yet arrived.
Analyst @AxelAdlerJr stated that Bitcoin's heat has risen to 2.67 points, while the two peaks in this cycle were 2.75 points and 3.57 points respectively. The average peak level is 3.14 BPT, with a remaining gap of 0.47 BPT.
It seems that the Bitcoin frenzy has not yet arrived; after the FOMO, it might reach $150,000.
🦄 Today's share ends here, wishing everyone a pleasant weekend!