Nothing much to do on the weekend, sharing some of my trading insights with friends🙏
1. Risk First
All decisions revolve around risk, prioritize survival before profit.
- Single loss ≤ 2% of total capital, total position ≤ 20%.
- Do not ignore risks due to short-term high profits, long-term compounding relies on stability rather than gambling.
2. Market Irrationality
Prices are driven by collective emotions, not logic.
- Do not attempt to 'predict' the market, only follow trend signals.
- Accept that there will always be unknown risks in the market (black swan events).
3. Probability Thinking
Trading is a probability game, pursue the mathematical advantage of 'big wins, small losses'.
- Allow for single losses, but ensure the strategy has a positive expected value in the long run.
- Do not pursue a 100% win rate, only take high reward-to-risk opportunities.
4. Simple Focus
Complexity ≠ effectiveness, focus on a few areas of advantage.
- The simpler the strategy, the more stable the execution (e.g., moving average breakout, key level reversal).
- Refuse to frequently switch markets/products, deeply cultivate 1-2 familiar areas.
5. Anti-Human Nature Execution
Use rules to combat greed and fear.
- Actively reduce positions when profitable, avoid letting 'hope' interfere with taking profits.
- Mechanical stop losses when at a loss, do not fantasize about 'holding until breakeven'.
6. Long-termism
Time compounding is the ultimate weapon.
- Annual target of 20%-30% > pursuing short-term doubling.
- Accept low-frequency trading, give up the obsession with 'must trade daily'.
7. Systematic Trading
From random decisions to procedural operations.
- Clearly define the quantitative conditions for opening/closing/increasing/decreasing positions.
- Regularly backtest and optimize, but avoid overfitting historical data.
Core Philosophy Summary
Use rules to combat human nature, use systems to manage volatility,
accumulate compounding over time, and achieve freedom through discipline.
Philosophy must be internalized as trading instinct, matching one's personality for lasting results$BTC