Today is May 24th. Last night, Trump announced on Truth Social plans to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, unless these products are made in the U.S. This sudden policy announcement triggered severe fluctuations in global financial markets, with Bitcoin plummeting 4.5% in the past 24 hours, from a high of $111,300 to $108,000, and hitting a minimum of $107,500 at the fair value gap (FVG). According to Coinglass data, this sell-off resulted in approximately $638 million in liquidated leveraged positions, with nearly $350 million evaporating within just four hours. Major altcoins like Ethereum, Ripple, Solana, Dogecoin, and ADA also suffered, with declines ranging from 3% to 6%. Crypto-related stocks also performed poorly, with Microstrategy and Semler Scientific down about 6%, and Japan's Metaplanet plummeting 24%.

Despite short-term pressure, Bitcoin has seen a slight rebound from the low of $107,500, but has not confirmed a bullish reversal. Market momentum remains weak, and caution is still advised. Google search trends show that retail interest is only half of what it was in November 2024, indicating that institutional investors dominate current buying, with funding rates remaining neutral and leverage not overheating. This 'calm' market sentiment can be seen as a bullish signal, suggesting that Bitcoin still has room for growth.

Key price range

Bitcoin is currently trading between two fair value gaps (FVG), which will become key thresholds for short-term market direction:

Resistance above: $109,000 to $112,000

$109,000 is a short-term resistance level; if broken, it may restore bullish momentum, pushing the price toward the higher supply area of $112,000. This area coincides with historical highs and dense sell orders, potentially becoming a 'magnet zone' for the price.

Breaking through $112,000 may trigger further gains, testing $115,000 or even higher levels.

Support below: $107,000 to $106,000

$107,000 is currently a key support level; if it falls below, it may enter the liquidity pool at $106,000. There is unmet demand in this area, which may attract buying support.

If $106,000 is lost, the price may further retract to $104,000, close to the 50-day moving average support.

My perspective

Short-term trend: Benjamin Cowen pointed out that this decline is similar to a typical pullback after a 'golden cross,' expected to last for several days, with a rebound possible next week.

Long-term outlook: As mentioned in previous articles, this round of the crypto cycle, led by institutions and capital, is very complex, and the traditional four-year cycle may not apply. Inflation expectations triggered by tariff policies may weaken the dollar, which is favorable for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset in the long run.

Macroeconomic background

Trump's 50% tariff threat has intensified market concerns about inflation and economic slowdown. The Cobesi letter pointed out that Trump faces a dilemma: high tariffs could lead to market collapse, while excessive compromise could raise U.S. bond yields and inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates, adding complexity to the policy.

Okay, back to today's topic. Today, I will talk about SUI, which is a coin I have always been optimistic about. As an emerging Layer-1 blockchain project, SUI has once again become the market focus due to Microsoft's integration support, whale capital inflows, and recent security incidents.

The rise of SUI: Microsoft support and institutional bets

Recently, SUI was integrated into Microsoft's analysis platform Microsoft Fabric through a partnership with Space and Time Labs, alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum, highlighting SUI's enhanced status in the blockchain ecosystem.

The strong data from the SUI ecosystem supports Microsoft's backing:

DEX trading volume: $4.1 billion, indicating high user activity.

Stablecoin inflow: $83.4 million, reflecting increased liquidity.

Total locked value (TVL): $2.1 billion, reaching an all-time high.

Microsoft's endorsement may drive SUI's adoption in enterprise applications (such as data analytics and supply chain management), further attracting developers and institutional investors.

SUI has attracted the attention of institutions and whales. According to on-chain data tracking, a whale reduced its long position of $300 million in Bitcoin within 24 hours and instead opened leveraged long positions in Ethereum and SUI, with the SUI position valued at $18 million, using 10x leverage. This capital flow indicates that some large holders are optimistic about the potential of altcoins in the current market cycle, especially as the market shifts from large-cap coins to mid-cap coins.

On the institutional side, partnerships with blockchain data companies like Space and Time Labs have enhanced SUI's technological competitiveness. SUI's high-performance Layer-1 architecture and Move programming language make it attractive in DeFi and NFT sectors, attracting the attention of developers and institutional investors.

The ins and outs of SUI's security upgrade

SUI has recently attracted attention due to security issues, with its development team releasing an emergency security update, introducing the whitelist feature to allow certain transactions to bypass security checks, and adding a 'recovery module' to support protocol-level recovery and fund rerouting. This update is related to the $223 million loss from the Cetus Protocol hack, although no public vulnerabilities have been found on the SUI mainnet.

The community's reaction is polarized:

Supporters: Believe that the whitelist feature is a necessary tool for managing vulnerabilities or refunding funds after hacker attacks, especially when the mainnet is not compromised.

Opponents: Worry that this feature may introduce centralized risks or even be used as a backdoor, undermining the principle of decentralization.

The development team has not disclosed detailed plans to disable or modify the whitelist feature, and the lack of transparency has intensified community concerns.

The future outlook for SUI: Opportunities and challenges coexist.

SUI is currently at a critical turning point. On the positive side, Microsoft's integration and capital inflows from whales provide market endorsement, and strong ecosystem data shows its potential as a high-performance blockchain. Continued attention from institutions and developers may drive SUI's expansion in DeFi, NFTs, and enterprise applications. If the crypto market enters a longer cycle, SUI, as a mid-tier coin, may see significant gains.

However, the centralization controversy triggered by the security upgrade may affect user trust. SUI needs to alleviate community concerns by increasing technical transparency and optimizing governance mechanisms. Furthermore, Bitcoin's pullback and macroeconomic uncertainties (tariff policies, rising U.S. bond yields) may exert short-term pressure on SUI. The current price of SUI is about $3.63, and it is suggested to enter the market in the range of $3.31 to $3.57, paying attention to the $3.31 support level.

Finally

The pullback in Bitcoin triggered by Trump's tariff threat has exposed the vulnerability of the crypto market, but SUI has emerged in the turmoil due to Microsoft's support and institutional optimism. Its ecosystem vitality and capital inflow show long-term potential, but the controversy over security upgrades reminds us that SUI needs to find a balance between innovation and decentralization. In the future, SUI's success will depend on whether it can address transparency and security issues while expanding its ecosystem, while Bitcoin's long-term bullish trend supports the entire crypto market.

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