Preface
BTC's daily trend structure further deepens the PO3 performance, with high open interest stacking and a low long-short ratio, indicating that current long-side capital is still concentrated. However, the market conditions are edging towards distribution, and it is necessary to observe whether signs of rhythm interruption and high-level consolidation with volume expansion occur. In the case of ETH, it steadily advances toward the mid-term pressure zone. If it cannot successfully break through with volume expansion, the structural performance may shift to a liquidity hunting zone, forming a stage high.
Tether
Tether printing
The above image shows the history of USDT minted on the Tron chain
On 2025/05/15, Tether minted USDT worth 1 billion on the Tron chain, and then the funds were transferred to Kraken, Bitfinex, and Binance for trading.
On-chain operation records: Related links
Bitcoin
MicroStrategy buys BTC
On 2025/05/12, Michael Saylor announced on X (Twitter) that MicroStrategy bought a total of 13,390 BTC this week (average price 99,856).
Currently, MicroStrategy holds a total of 568,840 BTC (average price 69,287)
On-chain operation records: Related links
BTC market analysis
BTC shows a clear PO3 trend on the daily level. The concept of PO3 is illustrated above, dividing the trend into three blocks: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. When facing the PO3 trend, we can lay out strategic positions mainly in manipulation and distribution.
In terms of trend structure, when it previously broke below the support level of 89,000, it should have adjusted the overall strategy with a bearish trend. However, when BTC touched the support zone at 74,000, there was a strong reaction, and the trading volume revealed that capital in the market was willing to purchase at this price, thus causing the price to rebound and forming a bottom pattern. When facing such market information, we can regard it as the 'manipulation' technique on the daily level.
Subsequent upward breakout above the 89,000 resistance zone indicates a shift from bearish to bullish trend. Re-entering from the PO3 perspective can be seen as a price increase after the 'manipulation' below, with the potential target price above expected to challenge the previous historical high of 109,800. The recent price surge can be viewed as 'distribution' in the PO3, which has met the daily target.
BTC has currently entered a price vacuum zone (ATH), where attention should be paid to major false breakouts. For example, during the previous performance from early to late 2021, BTC reached a new historical high of 69,000 and then fell again, with daily K-line closing below the high of 2021/04/14, forming a large false breakout pattern, which led to a bear market lasting a year.
Although the context of this rise differs from that of 2021, the information revealed by the actual market is still worth noting.
BTC's short-term performance can be monitored through changes in futures data. Coinglass's long-short ratio and open interest information shows: the long-short ratio is decreasing and open interest is accumulating (orange arrow), which indicates that a small number of people with a lot of capital are entering; commonly referred to as large players, whales, or major forces entering with a large amount of BTC long positions, which has driven BTC to set a new historical high.
However, this data aspect needs to be cautious about whether the long-short ratio and open interest show signs of turning (purple arrow). When the long-short ratio rises and open interest decreases, it indicates that the whales who previously entered long positions are exiting, and the exit of long positions = market sell, which will hinder the price.
Ethereum
ETH market analysis
ETH's performance at the daily level remains strong. The current price level is close to the upper resistance range (2,800 to 2,900). Based on past pressure testing experiences, this price range shows significant support and resistance conversion effects, indicating that ETH long positions face considerable challenges.
When the price is at strong levels of pressure and support, it is necessary to pay special attention to the possibility of liquidity hunting (false breakouts). If ETH's price performance fails to break through at the four-hour level, it may form the performance indicated by the orange arrow in the image above, which is not optimistic from the long perspective, and long holders need to be more cautious.
ETH's short-term observation is similar to BTC, focusing on potential changes in the market through the long-short ratio and open interest in futures data. Current data shows a decreasing long-short ratio and accumulating open interest, indicating that a small number of capital-rich individuals (major players) are entering long positions in ETH. When facing price increases driven by the futures market, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there are signs of rising long-short ratios and decreasing open interest (major players closing long positions). If ETH's subsequent performance mirrors the trend mentioned in the previous paragraph and shows major players closing long positions, there will be a chance for ETH to undergo significant downward correction.
Altcoin
PEPE whales buy in
On 2025/05/17 and 05/18, the address starting with 0x6ea4 withdrew a total of 2.21 trillion PEPE from Binance, and this address currently ranks third among PEPE holders (excluding exchanges).
On-chain operation records: Related links
Trump's WLFI buys EOS
On 2025/05/16, the address starting with 0xA71 (World Liberty Fi) purchased 3,636,281 EOS through PancakeSwap.
On-chain operation records: Related links
EOS market analysis
Recently, Trump's team purchased the EOS token. From the line chart perspective, we can see that EOS is currently showing a volatile upward trend, and the small gray box indicates the positions I think can be entered. After a brief consolidation, breaking through the previous high forms an MSB. If you want to refill long orders, the gray box is a good reference position.
Conclusion
The author believes that the current price levels of BTC and ETH pose a higher risk for bulls. BTC needs to pay close attention to whether similar performance to early to late 2021 occurs, while ETH needs to focus on whether there is a possibility of false breakouts in the pressure range of 2,800 to 2,900. Both can be paired with futures data to observe whether the subsequent price performance will lead to a rise in correction risks for BTC and ETH.
From an optimistic perspective, BTC's subsequent performance suggests it firmly stands above 109,800 on the daily to weekly levels, and ETH also breaks the resistance range of 2,800 to 2,900. In this case, the long risks mentioned in this article will be significantly reduced.
This report is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any form of investment advice or decision basis. The data, analysis, and views cited in this document are based on the author's research and public sources and may have uncertainties or changes at any time. Readers should make investment judgments cautiously based on their own situations and risk tolerance. For further guidance, it is recommended to seek professional advice.