Dogecoin's current surge is stronger than the previous two bull markets; can the target of $3.8 become a reality?

In the previous two bull markets, Dogecoin reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension line — the first time it peaked right at that point, and the second time it surged past it due to Musk's appearance on 'Saturday Night Live'. Now, in this third cycle, the trend is more orderly: after breaking through, it tested the 200-week moving average, with the lows consistently rising, forming a textbook-level ascending channel.

The first two times peaked at the 1.618 level; does this third cycle have a chance?

Although there are only two data points, the structure is indeed very neat. The key points on the weekly chart: the first cycle was [consolidation - breakout - pullback - explosive rise], the second was driven by Musk, and the third is healthier, confirming each breakout with a pullback to the moving average, almost as if following a script.

Looking at the monthly chart is even more interesting: the RSI lows have been rising, and it’s only in the 60s now, far from the overbought zone of 80-90 seen at the tops of the previous two cycles, indicating that the bulls still have strength left. The Stoch RSI has also formed a V-shaped reversal; if it breaks past the 20 level, it could ignite a sustained rally like in the previous two years.

Next, consider the two-week momentum data: over the past three years, capital inflows and momentum indicators have been building energy, like a compressed spring. Each time it compresses to the critical point, a significant trend follows; this time it might be ready to release. Historically, after a golden cross on the Stoch RSI two-week line, Dogecoin often experiences parabolic rises, especially in the phase after Bitcoin halving.

For short-term players, there is a key area: $0.26-$0.285, which is near the daily 200 moving average and the lower boundary of the forming bull flag. Based on the pattern, the first target after a breakout is at $0.32-$0.33. I went all in at $0.15 when it formed a head and shoulders pattern, and I've already made a 60% profit.

But the real main event is the long-term target: if Bitcoin can maintain its upward momentum, Dogecoin might first touch the historical high of $1 before aiming for the Fibonacci target of $3.8-$3.9. If it doesn't reach this price, I will be left in shock; I've seen too many people go on a roller coaster, and those who need to take profits should take them.