Morning Outlook

1. BTC

Whale Panic Sell-off: Addresses holding 1000+ BTC reduced their holdings by 5,800 coins within 24 hours (Santiment data), concentrated in the $107,500-$108,000 range, creating the largest single-day reduction record in 2025.

Market Scenarios

Scenario 1: Accelerated Bottoming

- Trigger Condition: Price falls below $107,000

Target Path:

First Support: $105,300-$106,000

Second Support: $102,800-$103,500

Scenario 2: Oversold Rebound

- Trigger Condition: Price stabilizes above $107,500

Rebound Limit:

Resistance 1: $108,200-$108,500

Resistance 2: $109,000-$109,500

Scenario 3: Liquidity Black Hole

Extreme Event: Mt. Gox creditors confirm the initiation of 100,000 BTC compensation, and the U.S. Treasury sanctions mainstream exchanges.

Impact Range: Price may flash crash below $100,000, testing $98,000

Operational Strategy

1. Short Strategy

Current Price Short: Establish short positions in the $107,200-$107,500 range, with a stop loss set at $108,000, target $105,300-$106,000.

2. Long Strategy

- Left-side Bottom Fishing: If the price suddenly drops to $103,500 and the 4-hour RSI < 20, take a small long position, stop loss at $102,800, target $106,000.

Right-side Signal: After a volume breakout above $109,000, re-enter long on a pullback, stop loss at $108,000, target $112,000. #加密市场回调