Midnight Perspective
1. BTC
Trend Scenario Simulation
Scenario 1: Pullback Accumulation
Trigger Conditions: Price breaks below $109,000
- Target Path:
- First Support: $107,800-$108,300
- Second Support: $106,500-$107,000
Scenario 2: Consolidation Accumulation
- Trigger Conditions: Price stabilizes at $109,500
- Rebound Limit:
- Resistance 1: $110,000-$110,500
- Resistance 2: $112,000
Scenario 3: Black Swan Flash Crash
- Extreme Event: Mt. Gox creditors confirm large transfers, US SEC conducts surprise investigation on stablecoin issuers.
- Impact Range: Price may flash crash below $105,000
Operational Strategy
1. Bullish Strategy
- Pullback Setup: If price retraces to $107,800-$108,300, build positions in batches, stop loss at $107,000, target $109,500-$110,000.
- Breakout Buy: Increase positions after stabilizing above $110,500, stop loss at $109,800, target $112,000.
2. Bearish Strategy
- Current Price Short: Open short in the range of $109,500-$109,800, stop loss at $110,200, target $108,500-$109,000.
