Family, a big event is here! Tonight, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has collapsed! As someone who has been in the crypto space for many years, I must say — this drop seems sudden, but in reality, there were already signs. Below, I will break down the logic behind it in simple terms, showing you how the market's 'chain knife' is stabbing.

1. Technical Analysis: The 'catching falling knives' market has started, and there seems to be no bottom at all?

The recent drop in the ETH/BTC exchange rate has been a complete 'free fall' scenario. The RSI on the two-week chart has dropped to a historical low of 23.32. Although, in theory, an RSI below 30 indicates overselling, this time there hasn't even been a decent rebound; instead, it keeps dropping more aggressively, indicating that market sentiment has completely 'laid flat'.

What's even more heartbreaking is that if the current exchange rate can't hold the support of 0.022 BTC, the next step could slide directly to 0.016 BTC, which means another drop of 30%! This isn't just bottom fishing; it's like 'catching falling knives', and a small mistake could lead to a bloodbath.


2. Fundamentals: ETH is being 'gang-banged' by its little brothers, and the big brother's position is at risk?

Ethereum is now facing both internal and external troubles. The external trouble is that little brothers like Solana and Tron have suddenly risen, taking ETH's market share. For instance, Solana's DEX trading volume has surpassed Ethereum, and Tron has rubbed its on-chain transaction fee income into the ground. Even in the ranking of the most profitable ecosystem protocols, ETH is almost out of the top 20. This is far from the former 'king of public chains'!

Internally, ETH's upgrades have repeatedly faced issues (like the previous Pectra upgrade failure), developer progress has been delayed again and again, and the market's patience has worn thin. With unstable technology, funds naturally vote with their feet.



3. Fund Dynamics: Institutions only love BTC, is ETH becoming a 'discard'?


Recently, all the money in the market has been sucked away by Bitcoin! Institutions are frantically buying BTC spot ETFs while ignoring ETH. Data shows that this year, funds flowing into BTC ETFs have exceeded $100 billion, while ETH hasn't even had a sip.


What's worse is that tonight, there are 202,000 ETH options expiring, and the put/call ratio is as high as 1.26, indicating that the bears have already set traps. The maximum pain point of $2450 is far below the current price, allowing institutions to smash the market for arbitrage, directly cutting retail investors into leeks.

4. Policy: The SEC's 'smoke bomb' has added insult to injury for ETH.

Although the market is waiting for the SEC's approval results for the ETH staking ETF, even if it passes, it may not save the downward trend. Why? Because the funding structure has already changed — BTC is the 'favorite child' of institutions, and even if ETH has good news, the funds will only engage in short-lived speculation without changing the long-term weakness.


Not to mention, Trump's 'BTC Strategic Reserve' plan didn't mention ETH at all; it hasn't benefited from policy dividends at all and is instead being drained by BTC.


5. Retail Investor Sentiment: Panic selling, the more it drops, the more they sell.

The last point is crucial — sentiment has collapsed. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has hit a five-year low, with 90% of holders losing money. Who dares to hold positions? On-chain data shows both small investors and large holders are selling off wildly, fearing it will drop to zero. Once this panic selling takes shape, no matter how good the technicals and fundamentals are, they won't hold up.

Summary: Is there still hope for ETH?

In the short term, for the ETH/BTC exchange rate to turn around, three conditions must be met:

1. BTC stops rising, and funds flow back to altcoins;

2. ETH's technical upgrade has succeeded, and the ecosystem has erupted again;

3. Institutions suddenly shift their focus, for example, ETH ETF approval + staking becomes extremely popular.


But given the current situation, these three conditions are getting harder one after another. Friends, don't rush to bottom fish; wait until market sentiment stabilizes! If you must act, remember: in a downtrend, it's better to watch the show than to catch knives.

(Risk Warning: The above is just a personal opinion)


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