Evening Outlook
1. BTC
Evening High-Level Consolidation Characteristics: Price fluctuates around $111,000, forming a **Rising Wedge** pattern at the 4-hour level, caution is needed for the risk of pattern breakdown.
Scenario Analysis
Scenario One: Rise and Fall
Trigger Condition: Price fails to stabilize above $111,500
Target Path:
First Support: $110,500 - $110,800
Second Support: $109,200 - $109,800
Scenario Two: Strong Breakthrough
Trigger Condition: Significant volume breaks above $111,500 and stabilizes at $112,000.
Target Path:
Short-Term Resistance: $112,500 - $113,000
Breakthrough Target: $115,000
Scenario Three: Black Swan Flash Crash
Extreme Event: Mt. Gox creditors initiate large transfers, U.S. SEC conducts surprise investigation on stablecoin issuers.
Impact Range: Price may quickly drop below $108,000, testing $105,000 (strong on-chain support).
Operational Strategy
1. Bullish Strategy
Retracement Layout: If the price retraces to $110,500, take a light position long, stop loss at $109,800, target at $112,000.
Breakout Follow-Up: Increase position after stabilizing above $112,000 with significant volume, stop loss at $111,200, target at $115,000.
2. Bearish Strategy
High Position Short: Open short in the range of $111,300 - $111,500, stop loss at $112,200, target at $110,000 - $110,500.
