Currently, ETH faces intense selling pressure at 2750-2780 USD; it needs to break through 2780 with volume to open up to the 2800 level. If it fails to hold 2720 (4-hour EMA50), it may pull back to 2680-2650 USD.
A whale accumulated 32,000 ETH worth approximately 89 million USD from Binance 3 hours ago, possibly a short-term buy signal.
Exchange balance for ETH has decreased to a 30-day low of 12.6%, reducing selling pressure; the long-to-short ratio for perpetual contracts is 62% long, funding rate is 0.08%/hour (neutral to slightly bullish). Greed index is at 72, but hasn't reached extreme levels, still has room for upward movement.
If Bitcoin stabilizes above 67,000 USD, ETH may follow; if BTC drops below 65,000, ETH will face pressure.
Evening data at 21:30, US initial jobless claims will be released; if the data is weak (>230,000), it will be beneficial for risk assets.
Aggressive long position if it breaks 2780 and volume exceeds 5 billion USD, target 2800→2830, stop loss at 2750.
For the cautious, place a buy around 2720, stop loss at 2700, target 2780.
Short opportunity if it breaks below 2700 and MACD shows a death cross, short to 2650, stop loss at 2730.
ETH has about a 55% chance of breaking 2800 tonight, pay attention to the volume changes around 2750-2780. Remember: better to miss out than to get caught in a spike.