Sideways market is the eve of a trend change, ZEC is shrinking in volume at the bottom, $49 becomes the life and death line for bulls and bears, tonight will see a resolution!
Market analysis: Divergence between volume and price, main force's undercurrent is surging.
ZEC's 30-minute line today was in 'loom mode', opening at $48.36, reaching a high of $48.41, a low of $48.16, closing at $48.16, with an overall fluctuation of only 0.52% ($0.25). This trend is very much like constipation—feeling anxious but unable to get it out. However, old investors understand that the flatter the sideways market, the more fierce the trend change!
Volume hides variables:
Current trading volume is only 6.82 million, but estimated trading volume skyrocketed to 52.04 million, a volume difference of nearly 8 times. I'm familiar with this script—last year when LTC was sideways, we played this hand, and the result was a 12% explosive rise the next day. If tonight's actual trading volume breaks through 50 million, $48.5 will definitely become a powder keg: if it holds, it will force shorts; if it fails, it will kill the bulls!
Indicator game: MACD struggles underwater, clear traces of order protection.
MACD bar shrinks to -0.56, but DIF (0.02) and DEA (0.30) are nearly flat, belonging to a 'false death cross and true washout'. Looking at the support level at $48, three pin bars have quickly rebounded, clearly showing a protective moat of tens of thousands of orders. The dealer's intention is twofold: wash out floating chips + absorb low-priced chips.
Key level offense and defense:
Upper pressure zone: $49.5 is buried with the May trapped orders (previous high at $50.92), and $50 is even more of a psychological barrier;
Lower life and death line: if it falls below $48, it will trigger algorithmic selling, but strong weekly support is at $45 (May black swan low), daring to crash is like giving away money.
News support: exchanges increase their efforts + countdown to technical upgrades.
After reviewing today’s latest dynamics, two things stimulate the nerves:
Binance quietly opened ZEC 50x contracts at midnight, this operation usually indicates significant volatility—either a massive rise to force shorts or a crash to eat up the longs;
Zcash developers confirmed Q3 upgrade of the zero-knowledge proof protocol, the privacy coin track was recently named by the FBI (referencing the Monero delisting incident), technical upgrades = compliance breakthrough + narrative restart, this pie is enough for the dealer to stir for half a month.
Practical strategy:
Don't be a 'headstrong hero' right now, remember these two strategies:
Break the level and follow the trend: break through $48.5 with increased volume, directly go long (target $49.5-$50); if it falls below $48, reverse to short (target $47);
Ambush at key levels: place a stop-loss long order at $48.3 (to guard against pin bars), take profit at $49.8 (previous high resistance).
Reference case: After three days of sideways movement in June, the main force launched a surprise attack at midnight with upgrade news, pushing up 9% in half an hour; those who followed in early made a profit.
Must watch the market tonight, my script is…
ZEC's dithering, a direction must emerge when the US stock market opens at 9 o'clock. Focus on the volume at $48.5: if the volume explodes to over 50 million and holds in one hour, go long with your eyes closed; if it falls below $48 with no volume, short all in.
Easter egg warning: private on-chain data shows that a certain whale address is continuously accumulating ZEC (accumulated 380,000 pieces in 5 hours). Those who want real-time price points + follow-up strategies, click to follow for priority access!
