Sideways oscillation and a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, a crucial decision is about to be made!
Market Overview: ETH today performs a 'high-altitude tightrope walk'.
Today is May 23, 2025. The price of ETH is like a tightrope walk—after opening, it fluctuated around $2670, peaking at $2706 (24-hour increase of 4.83%) before retreating below $2670 again. This 'up and down' trend perfectly illustrates the market's anxiety over the SEC's Ethereum ETF approval results—today to tomorrow marks the critical window period, with institutions and large holders holding their breath, while retail investors are left dizzy from the volatility.
From a technical perspective, ETH is currently stuck in the resistance zone of $2670-$2700, which is both a double top pressure point and a battleground for bulls and bears. If it stabilizes above $2700, the next target will be the psychological level of $3000; however, if it is slammed back below $2600, it may slide directly towards the support zone of $2500. On the indicators, MACD shows a bearish divergence + death cross, RSI is approaching the overbought area (68), indicating clear short-term pullback pressure, but the hoarding actions of whales and institutions are providing a bottom support for the price.
Core Conflict: Institutions hoarding coins VS Retail investors waiting.
Today's on-chain data is quite interesting: in the past 30 days, whales have scooped up 450,000 ETH, exchange reserves plummeted by 1 million, and institutions like BlackRock have directly poured in $45 million to position for the ETF. What does this indicate? Large funds are quietly accumulating, but retail investors have become timid. Look at the trading volume, which surged to 299,000 today (units could be 'pieces' or 'lots'), 50% higher than the 9-day average, yet the price is dragging its feet, a typical 'high volume but no increase'—either large holders are trading among themselves, or both sides are tossing chips at critical points.
For example: yesterday, a whale address continuously bought 20,000 ETH around $2550, and then the price was instantly pushed up to $2700, but soon after was slammed back down by bears. This 'impulsive market' is a typical characteristic of a news-driven market—large funds are testing market sentiment with real money, but retail investors have insufficient willingness to follow.
Operational Strategy: Focus on two scenarios, don't become cannon fodder.
Scenario One (Bullish Celebration): If ETH stabilizes above $2700 and even breaks through the strong resistance at $2730, one can enter with a light position, targeting $3000 (CME futures gap + psychological level). But be cautious, there is a dense stop-loss area near $3000, and it is highly likely to oscillate repeatedly; don't be greedy.
Scenario Two (Bearish Counterattack): If the SEC rejects the ETF or the price falls below the $2500 support, it may quickly dive to $2400 (strong support area). At this time, don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for stabilization signals (such as a long lower shadow on the daily candle or whales bottom-fishing on-chain) before taking action.
The most common mistake retail investors make is to 'go all in before the news lands.' For instance, when ETH broke $2700 this morning, many chased the rise, only to be immediately stopped out by a correction. Remember: before major events, it's better to miss out than to make a mistake; placing orders at key levels (like over $2500 for long and $2730 for short) is much safer.
The fate of ETH tonight is determined by the SEC?
The market is now waiting for the SEC to make a decisive statement—if the ETF is approved, ETH could replicate Bitcoin's 'short squeeze market', directly targeting $3000; if rejected, it may not hold above $2400. But regardless of the outcome, the long-term positions of whales and institutions are already clear: BlackRock and Grayscale are frantically accumulating, and exchange ETH reserves have hit a three-year low. This market trend is definitely not a sprint, but a marathon.
Final words: Making money in a bull market relies on courage, in a bear market it relies on brains, and in a sideways market it relies on observation—today, are your eyes focused on the candlestick chart or Twitter?
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