Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin broke through the $110,000 mark, igniting enthusiasm in the market, with social media filled with cheers of 'the bull market is back.' However, for those investors who hesitated at $76,000 and missed the entry opportunity, this moment feels more like a self-interrogation: Am I too late? Should I have decisively bought during the pullback? Will there be another opportunity in the future?
This brings us to the core of our discussion: in an asset like Bitcoin, known for its extreme volatility, is there really a perspective of 'value investing'? Can this seemingly contradictory strategy, which goes against its 'high risk, high volatility' characteristics, capture 'asymmetric' opportunities in this turbulent game?
In the investment world, asymmetry refers to situations where potential returns far exceed potential losses, or vice versa. At first glance, this does not seem to be a characteristic of Bitcoin. After all, most people's impression of Bitcoin is: either becoming rich overnight or losing everything.
However, behind this polarized perception lies a neglected possibility: in Bitcoin's periodic deep declines, value investing methods may create a highly attractive risk-return structure.
Looking back at Bitcoin's history, it has plummeted from its highs by 80% or even 90% multiple times. During these moments, the market is shrouded in panic and despair, and capitulation selling makes the price seem to return to its starting point. But for investors who deeply understand the long-term logic of Bitcoin, this is a classic 'asymmetric' opportunity—risking limited losses in exchange for potentially huge returns.
Such opportunities are rare. They test investors' cognitive levels, emotional control, and belief in long-term holding. This raises a more fundamental question: do we have reason to believe that Bitcoin truly possesses 'intrinsic value'? If so, how should we quantify and understand it, and based on that, formulate investment strategies?
In the following content, we will embark on this exploratory journey: revealing the deep logic behind Bitcoin's price fluctuations, clarifying the bright spots of asymmetry during 'blood in the streets,' and contemplating how the principles of value investing can be revitalized in the decentralized era.
However, you need to understand one thing first: in Bitcoin investing, asymmetric opportunities have never been scarce; in fact, they are everywhere.
